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S. Korean economy to grow 3.4 pct in 2015: brokerage houses

Jan. 28, 2015 - 09:15 By KH디지털2
South Korea's economic growth rate for this year is expected to be a little higher than last year's expansion but fall short of the government's estimate, reports compiled by brokerage houses showed Wednesday.

Ten major brokerage houses' average economic growth outlook for 2015 came in at 3.4 percent, slightly higher than the 3.3 percent on-year expansion posted last year, according to the reports.

Their growth estimate for the year matches the projection by the Bank of Korea (BOK) of 3.4 percent growth but is far lower than the government's 3.8 percent forecast.

Mirae Asset Securities Co. and Daishin Securities Co. expected the highest rate of 3.7 percent, while Samsung Securities Co. anticipated the lowest of 3.0 percent.

The growth projection by local brokerage houses also compares with a 3.6 percent expansion estimated by 10 major global investment banks, such as BNP Paribas.

Local securities firms' growth projections may be further downgraded as some of them are set to adjust their estimates following the country's latest growth data.

Last week, the BOK said the South Korean economy expanded at the slowest pace in more than two years in the fourth quarter, raising concerns over faltering growth.

Asia's fourth-largest economy expanded 0.4 percent during the October-December period, sharply decelerating from the 0.9 percent on-quarter growth in the July-September period, the central bank said. The fourth-quarter expansion marks the lowest on a quarterly basis since the 0.4 percent gain in the third quarter of 2012.

"Forth-quarter figures, such as government spending and private spending, fell short of our expectations," said Ra Joong-hyuck, an analyst at Hyundai Securities Co. "The environment for exports is getting worse, and domestic conditions are not so good as well."

The analyst trimmed this year's growth estimate to 3.4 percent from the previous 3.6 percent.

Earlier this month, the BOK also sharply lowered its economic growth outlook for the year as the economy continues to stumble due to lackluster domestic demand.

The central bank cut its growth forecast for this year to 3.4 percent from an October forecast of 3.8 percent. In December, the finance ministry also trimmed its growth estimate for this year to

3.8 percent from 4 percent, citing lower-than-expected consumption and business investment.

Hur Jae-hwan, an analyst at Daewoo Securities Co., slashed his growth outlook for the year to 3.3 percent from 3.5 percent citing faltering domestic demand and weak exports.

"Exports fell for a second consecutive quarter during the fourth quarter of last year, boding ill for the overall economy," said Hur. (Yonhap)