South Korea’s state-run trade bank said Sunday that the country’s exports are likely to grow around 10 percent in the first quarter of next year from a year earlier, helped by the recovery of the global economy.

The Export-Import Bank of Korea said its leading index for the country’s exports came in at 135.7 for the January-March period, up 2.8 percent from the previous year.

Given that the leading index rose for the fifth straight quarter, Korea’s exports are likely to grow around 10 percent in the first quarter, weathering the local currency’s gain to the dollar, the bank said.

The bank’s forecast is based on expectations that major economies, including the United States and Japan, are likely to recover next year.

But it also said that the Korean won’s appreciation against the greenback and the Japanese yen could somewhat dent exporters’ price competitiveness.

“Potential turmoil in emerging markets sparked by U.S. monetary stimulus tapering could also serve as a risk factor for exports,” it added.

The government predicted that the country’s exports will grow 6.4 percent on-year in 2014 after this year’s 2.5 percent expansion. (Yonhap News)