South Korea is the place to be this election season. The fortune tellers are at it again. Defeat for Park, defeat for Moon, win for Ahn. Maybe. This year’s presidential election is a wide open contest. Whether this was foresight or plain good timing by Ahn we’ll never know. But the Ahn factor has galvanized interest right across South Korean society. Whether his humbleness and deference to the people is genuine or not, that’s another issue.

The announcement on Wednesday (Sept. 19) seemed to be tactical, just a few days after the liberal primary result and exactly three months before election day. Ahn had set up the day to announce whether he would run or not. The real question is whether he will make a deal with Democratic United Party presidential candidate Moon. Ahn may already feel that he has gained enough momentum to carry him through without that.

Undoubtedly calculation is inevitable and I would be more worried if he wasn’t calculating in the rough and tumble world of politics. Of course this is at odds with Ahn’s portrayal of himself (I can’t say party as there is none) as a benevolent instrument for the people, to be directed as the people want. For Westerners like myself, the paternalistic use of the term “the people” is highly problematic. Government and the people are meant to be the same thing.

So will he contemplate a deal with Moon? He certainly knocked the stuffing out of Moon’s primary win. A deal with Moon (perhaps making Ahn prime minister) would certainly defeat the Saenuri. But this kind of deal-making seems contrary to what Ahn wants or represents. Yet I’m not often sure what he does want. Does he want to clean up the political system from the inside once he is in office? Does he want to clean up the election process to get all three leaders to embrace an ethical politics without resorting to mudslinging? Well that certainly ups the ante and any challenges to Ahn’s credibility can now be brushed aside by him and his supporters with a Reaganesque “you see, there they go again.”

So if this is what Ahn means, then we may all be immersed in a wave of “ethical talk” from all parties before the election. This would probably have happened without Ahn’s invitation. Certainly Ahn has captured the public’s mood and has raised the stakes. Presumably (unless laws of mutually assured destruction no longer apply) the major two parties will play along. So if all parties flatline on the ethical issue then what exactly does Ahn now have to run on? To clean up the system from the inside as a benevolent Trojan horse undermines the whole point of his campaign. Running on independence without a party also causes huge policy problems and inconsistencies. Republicans in the U.S., or Conservatives in the U.K. spend years in opposition berating government yet simultaneously want to run for high government office to confirm their suspicions.

Saenuri and liberals can use the Ahn factor to divide and rule the opposition party and to accelerate or soothe factions within their own respective parties. Surely as presidential candidate Ahn now has to make public motions toward courting international leaders, to put forward an economic program, have a policy on multiculturalism and migration, deal with real estate issues and attend to South Korea’s natural resource crisis. The list is endless. Whilst he may have listened to the people and given the people his thoughts, the people now want to hear what he is going to do. How is he going to fix things?

My opinion is that, like unification, many South Koreans can see the point, but the costs are a little too high just now. Ahn may become a victim of his own success. Raised hopes and expectations lead to disappointing political realities in today’s interconnected age. But raising hopes and expectations is good enough to start a better future, now. Thanks, Ahn.

By Iain Watson

Iain Watson is assistant professor of Ajou University. He teaches politics and international relations at the university’s graduate school. ― Ed.