While there are no known foolproof solutions to conflicting territorial claims in international politics, patience and self-restraint seem to be a sensible course of action for all the claimants, because if a dispute degenerates into armed conflict, none of the claimants can be assured of the outcome and may even end up losing more than they might have otherwise gained. There is also the risk of conflicts spilling over into new fights and the danger of collateral damage.
A case in point is the dispute between Taiwan, China, the Philippines, Brunei, Vietnam and Malaysia over the sovereignty of some islands in the South China Sea. While an uneasy peace has been maintained in the area since 1988, when more than 70 Vietnamese sailors were killed in a Vietnam-People’s Republic of China naval clash just south of Chigua Reef (also known as the Johnson South Reef) in the Spratly Islands, recent minor clashes between the Philippines and the People’s Republic have led to heightened tensions in the area.
According to media reports, China has sent more than 30 ships to Scarbourough Shoal, known in Mandarin Chinese as Huangyan Island, in the South China Sea, following a monthlong standoff with the Philippines after Philippine forces boarded eight Chinese fishing vessels and impounded their catches.
In the aftermath of the incident, around 1,000 Filipinos were expected to stage a protest at the Chinese Embassy in Manila yesterday to voice opposition to the Chinese presence in waters around the disputed shoal.
Taiwan’s representative office in the Philippines said in an advisory notice on Wednesday that Taiwanese expatriates should be careful about the situation because there is also a sovereignty dispute between Taipei and Manila over the Spratly Islands.
While one might accuse China of saber-rattling or protesting by proxy, the Philippines also may not be seen as absolutely guiltless, especially in the wake of its earlier joint amphibian exercise with the United States in the region.
On April 25, 4,500 U.S. Marines and 2,500 Philippine troops staged a landing drill at Ulugan Bay on Palawan Island to simulate the recapture of an island from “militants.” Despite denials by American and Philippine officials, the exercise was apparently aimed at China, which contests the sovereignty of waters and islands in the South China Sea, including the Spratly Islands, adjacent to Palawan Island.
After the drill, a commentary in the Liberation Army Daily, the mouthpiece of the Chinese military, duly declared: “Anyone with clear eyes saw long ago that behind these drills is reflected a mentality that will lead the South China Sea issue down a fork in the road toward military confrontation and resolution through armed force.”
In the murky water of geopolitics, one can see little beyond the immediate surface of what is going on and the misreading of motives can have serious consequences. For this reason, provocative actions, including drills, a show of a force and protests, are definitely counterproductive.
While we certainly respect the national aspirations and pride of all the parties to the territorial dispute, we also urge self-restraint, especially when a nation’s economic well-being is at stake.
At a time when the Philippine economy is slowly showing some signs of recovery and when money sent home by Philippine laborers working overseas, many in Chinese communities such as Hong Kong, reportedly accounting for as much as 9 percent of its GDP, negotiations may seem more useful than “anti-Chinese” protests, which, among other things, are a misnomer that might offend more people than necessary.
Actually, when the global economy is tanking, none of the claimants can afford anything more than a war of words. So why not let cooler heads prevail?
