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Election battles too close to predict

April 9, 2012 - 21:06 By Korea Herald
The final countdown to the April 11 general election has begun but most crucial constituencies are still neck-and-neck, making it difficult for parties and experts to predict the outcome.

The main opposition Democratic United Party had been seen as having the upper hand, especially because of the current government’s falling support in opinion polls and the civilian surveillance scandal.

However, the public backlash against DUP candidate Kim Yong-min’s past foul remarks has seemingly narrowed the gap between the parties.

Uncertainty over the results was compounded by the public election law forbidding opinion polls during the last week of the campaign period

Observers nevertheless agree that the opposition camp has a fair chance of winning a parliamentary majority, though that majority would likely not be as commanding as had been earlier expected.
Voters watch a candidate campaigning near Mok-dong subway station in Yangcheon-gu, Seoul, on Monday, two days before the general election. (Park Hyun-koo/The Korea Herald)

According to a survey Sunday by Seoul Sinmun of 20 political experts, a majority of respondents predicted that neither party would succeed in winning more than 150 of the total 300 seats.

In another survey by Hankyoreh, 21 out of 28 experts said that the DUP would win 130-140 seats, beating the rival party by fewer than 10 seats.

The opposition, however, is expected to gain additional momentum should the minority Unified Progressive Party win a considerable number of seats and contribute to the left-wing bloc.

Amid the uncertainty, the leading parties made humble predictions of their results, seemingly attempting to rally indecisive voters and rake up as many votes as possible.

“We believe that at least 5 percent of the liberal voters have so far remained under cover,” said Rep. Lee Hye-hoon, chief of the ruling party’s election committee, in a radio interview on Monday.

“The public survey results are no longer reliable as they have failed to reflect the voters’ recent feedback.”

She also referred to local elections in 2010 when the public polls were largely in favor of the right-wing but turned out to be widely inaccurate.

Han Myeong-sook, chairwoman of the DUP, also warned liberal supporters against complacency.

“Conservative voters are already united against the left-wing and we are thus facing an emergency,” said Han.

“Should the Saenuri Party grab power once again, they will never learn to open their ears to the public’s calls.”

The liberal leader even pledged to stage a dancing performance in Gwanghwamun Plaza if the total turnout exceeds 70 percent.

“The key point is the participation rate of young liberal voters,” said Rep. Park Sun-sook, chief of the party’s election headquarters.

“We expect the tipping point (for a liberal win) to be around 60 percent.”

The leading parties’ leaders dedicated their last-minute efforts to Seoul and the metropolitan area, where 45.5 percent of constituencies are located.

The official election campaign period is to end at midnight, Tuesday, in accordance with the public election law.

By Bae Hyun-jung (tellme@heraldcorp.com)