China’s inflation accelerated more than forecast in March amid rising wages and a fuel-price increase, signaling that policy makers may exercise caution in adding stimulus to boost growth.
Consumer prices rose 3.6 percent from a year earlier after gaining 3.2 percent in February, the National Bureau of Statistics said on its website Monday. That was more than the median 3.4 percent estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of 33 economists.
Monday’s data show Premier Wen Jiabao’s officials may need to remain alert to the risk of inflation bouncing back even after price increases stayed below the government’s 4 percent target for a second month. Authorities will seek to “prevent a rebound” in consumer prices and manage inflationary expectations, Wen said during a visit to southern China from April 1 to 3.
“Inflation will pick up further as China’s economy warms up again,” Liu Li-Gang, Hong Kong-based head of Greater China Economics at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd., said before the release. Rising wage costs and the government’s policies to boost consumption will add upward pressure on prices, he said.
Vendors await customers at a shopping complex in Beijing. (Bloomberg)
The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.8 percent at 9:36 a.m. local time following the report.
China’s producer price index, a leading indicator for consumer inflation, fell 0.3 in March from a year earlier after showing no change in February, the statistics bureau said. That was the first decline since November 2009 and matched the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of 29 economists.
The economy may have expanded about 8.4 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier, Zhang Xiaoqiang, vice chairman of the National Development and Reform Commission, said April 3, citing initial estimates from “relevant China research institutes.” That would be the slowest growth in almost three years. The statistics bureau is scheduled to release the data on April 13. In the fourth quarter, growth was 8.9 percent.
The People’s Bank of China cut lenders’ reserve requirements effective Feb. 24 for the second time in three months to pump more liquidity into the banking system after the economy expanded in the fourth quarter at the slowest pace since mid-2009.
Economists at Morgan Stanley and Nomura Holdings Inc. estimate China will ease monetary policy to boost growth. Analysts in a Bloomberg News survey last month unanimously said banks’ reserve requirements will fall this year, while nine of 20 predicted lower benchmark borrowing costs.
Even so, Liu at ANZ, who forecast a reserve-ratio cut as soon as this month, said a reduction may be delayed if economic expansion and inflation accelerate.
Growth may recover to 8.9 percent to 9 percent in the second quarter as the economy responds to previous monetary easing and demand from the U.S. and Europe recovers, he said.
Wen said last month the government aims to keep consumer- price gains within about 4 percent for 2012, taking into account risks from imported inflation and rising costs of land, labor and capital. He also pledged to change the way the price of resources including electricity and fuel are set to better reflect their costs.
China, the world’s largest oil consumer after the U.S., increased gasoline and diesel prices for the second time in less than six weeks on March 20 after crude had its biggest monthly gain in a year, adding to pressure for consumer prices to rise.
China Petroleum & Chemical Corp., Asia’s biggest refiner, said last month it will ramp up crude production and develop natural gas fields to counter losses from selling diesel and gasoline at state-mandated prices. Sinopec, as the Beijing-based company is known, said fourth-quarter profit dropped 23 percent, missing estimates.
Shanghai joined Beijing and Shenzhen in raising minimum wages this year as policy makers seek to spur consumer spending and a shrinking labor surplus pushes up salaries. The nation’s financial hub and most affluent city said in February it will raise the figure by 13 percent to 1,450 yuan ($230) a month starting in April.
People’s Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said on April 3 that the policy goal shared by China and other emerging nations is to “gradually bring inflation down” to help achieve a so-called soft landing. He didn’t elaborate.
(Bloomberg)
