Call it musical chairs with Chinese characteristics. The number of seats remains the same, but a player gets eliminated instead.
Bo Xilai’s ouster as leader of Chongqing two weeks ago, a result of his top aide’s asylum dash to a U.S. consulate, might have snuffed out his chances of a promotion in the Chinese Communist Party. But it has brightened the prospects of almost every single one of his rivals.
“The removal of any major player releases pressure on others because there are just so few seats in the first place,” said analyst Yang Dali from the University of Chicago.
To be exact, there are nine prized places within the party’s Standing Committee of the Politburo, the most inner circle which decides how China should be governed.
The date of the game is this autumn, when seven Standing Committee members are expected to retire during the 18th five-yearly Congress, a turnover not seen since 2002.
The remaining duo are Vice-President Xi Jinping and Vice-Premier Li Keqiang, both of whom have been part of this elite group since 2007.
The pair are expected to take over the reins from President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao respectively, effectively becoming two of the most powerful men in the world.
Neither is expected to be affected by the sacking of Bo, 62, previously seen as a front runner in the race to be one of the seven new top men.
As Douglas Paal, the United States’ former envoy to Taiwan, said at a talk last Thursday in Washington: “Xi Jinping’s and Li Keqiang’s positions in the Politburo Standing Committee are not in doubt at this point.
“But other positions on the Standing Committee and other knock-on positions below could be very seriously put out of pre-arrangement.”
“It is the ‘Bo Xilai chain effect’,” said Peking University political analyst Zhang Jian. “All the positions will be totally reconsidered.”
There are a few likely winners ― including clear adversaries of Bo’s and also those believed to be from the same political faction.
Analyst Jeremy Paltiel from Carleton University said: “The most obvious beneficiary is Wang Yang among the fifth generation. He received the open endorsement of Wen Jiabao.”
Wang is the Guangdong party boss and is seen as Bo’s chief rival. His more liberal “Guangdong model” is diametrically different from Bo’s conservative and state-centric “Chongqing model.”
The two men waged a rare open debate in elite Chinese politics last year, making oblique insults and trading criticisms.
Bo had said that China should focus more on the distribution of wealth rather than the “go-go” development of the past few decades. But Wang, whose province has been the engine of China’s growth, retorted that growing the economy must remain the priority.
Their rivalry was made worse by Bo’s crackdown on triads and official corruption in Chongqing, embarrassing Wang, who was his predecessor in the southwestern megacity.
Wang is closely linked to Hu and Wen, both of whom have visited Guangdong but not Chongqing since Bo arrived there in late 2007.
Besides Wang, others who are seen as being part of Bo’s “princelings” faction and close to former leader Jiang Zemin are also likely to get a boost from the Chongqing leader’s downfall.
“Just like the U.S. Republican primaries, one Republican candidate falls, other Republican candidates gain. Those who can benefit will most likely come from the same political coalition,” said Chinese politics observer Li Cheng from the Brookings Institution.
They include new Chongqing boss Zhang Dejiang, Tianjin leader Zhang Gaoli and Shanghai’s party secretary Yu Zhengsheng, he added.
Zhang Dejiang, in particular, is expected to be a potential big winner from this political firestorm in Chongqing, sometimes called the “furnace city.”
“There is an emergency and he is like the fire department official whom the party trusts to send out there to put out the fire,” said Peking University’s Professor Zhang.
But as Bo’s sidelining has shown, Chinese politics is always surprising and rarely predictable.
In the seven to eight months between now and the Congress, a lot can still happen.
Said Paal: “This is far from over.”
By Peh Shing Huei
Peh Shing Huei is a political correspondent with The Straits Times in Singapore. ― Ed.
