Sunday was splendid for beach-goers and bikers. But it also brought nasty tail winds from the first credit downgrade in United States history:
― For the half of U.S. households that own stocks, the news from Tel Aviv ― where Sunday is a trading day ― suggested a turbulent Monday as world markets digest the downgrade: Israel’s blue-chip stock index tumbled 6.99 percent.
― Speaking on ABC’s “This Week,” Standard & Poor’s managing director John Chambers defended his agency’s decision to drop the U.S. government’s rating: “Our job is to hold the mirror up to nature, and what we are telling investors is that we have a spectrum that runs from “AAA” to “D.” And what we’re seeing is a threat the United States government is slightly less creditworthy.” He put at 1-in-3 the chance that, in coming months, S&P will drop the rating another notch. And he warned that to reclaim the lost rating, fractious U.S. leaders need to unite and deliver “stabilization AND EVENTUAL DECLINE” of U.S. debt. (Emphasis ours, intended for deniers in caves who still rate ever-rising deficits as A-OK.)
― As if to prove to S&P that our political class is too infantile to deliver bold spending reforms, we offer this succinct account from Politico: “The political gridlock that contributed to S&P’s decision to make the first-ever reduction in the nation’s “AAA” credit rating to “AA+” was evident Sunday, with members of both parties agreeing the blame is shared ― but mostly the other guy’s fault.”
Hmm. How hopeful of fast and courageous action does all that make you feel?
There may, though, be reason for optimism. Within days we’ll all know which 12 members of Congress will sit on the bipartisan “supercommittee” sired by last week’s debt-ceiling-and-deficits deal. Call them “The Deficits Dozen,” with Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, House Speaker John Boehner and Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi each naming three.
The S&P downgrade, the promise of higher borrowing costs for every American, and market palsy make the supercommittee’s mandate all the more urgent. Paradoxically, those forces also should make its job easier. How so?
We know what comes from debt and deficit commissions that aren’t staring down the barrel of a crisis: oodles of proposals that powerful constituencies, nicely paid lobbyists and election-wary incumbents quietly exterminate.
That won’t work this time. With more downgrades possible and citizens wising up to how much that will cost them, public pressure for a major deal on spending, taxation and borrowing should be strong. Remember all the pols who, a week ago, hoped all the inconvenient talk about their rising deficits would fall silent until after the 2012 election? Now they know better: Americans want more private-sector job creation. And increasingly they understand why Washington’s debt, by stoking tax fears and raising everyone’s interest costs, makes that impossible.
No, the U.S. likely can’t begin to restore growth until official Washington solves a debt debacle and a legacy of overspending. That should include reform of now-doomed entitlement programs and, as we argued Sunday, a tax scheme with fewer deductions and lower marginal rates.
That debt-ceiling kerfuffle Americans just endured? Turns out it was just an exhibition game. The suddenly more crucial supercommittee has until Nov. 23 to produce an ambitious plan, likely tailored to S&P’s call for “stabilization and eventual decline” of U.S. debt. And lawmakers who may have thought they could scuttle the mandatory budget cuts that a supercommittee deadlock would produce? Even the biggest spenders now know that with the downgrade diverting federal money from popular programs to interest payments, furious citizens will demand smaller budget deficits.
Sometimes, crises create heroes. We have hope, then, for The Deficits Dozen.