North Korean leader Kim Jong-il, the general secretary of the ruling Workers’ Party of Korea, died Saturday.
After the death of his father, Kim Il-sung, he struggled for 17 years to maintain the reclusive country’s regime. News of the dictator’s sudden death flashed around the globe, after the fact was hidden for two days.
It is inevitable that North Korea, a country with a father-son political succession system, will become more unstable for a while.
What will the regime be like under the rule of Kim Jong-il’s successor? Will there be any change in its diplomatic policies? What effects will Kim’s death bring about in South Korea, which will hold general and presidential elections next year?
Uncertainty is growing over the future of issues related to nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles as well as efforts to secure the safety of Japanese victims abducted by North Korean agents.
For the international community, the top priority is to maintain Northeast Asia’s peace and security. The international community, including Japan, must calmly deal with the situation on the Korean Peninsula, which has entered a very serious phase.
According to reports by North Korea’s state media, Kim Jong-il died suddenly on a train after he suffered a heart attack caused by accumulated fatigue due to overwork.
April next year will be the 100th anniversary of the birth of Kim Il-sung, an occasion that Kim Jong-il had designated as the starting point for North Korea to develop into a “powerful and prosperous nation”. Kim had avidly been giving field guidance at economic and production facilities as well as military installations in the country. His death came while he was in the middle of such activities.
North Korean media started to formally refer to Kim Jong-un, the 28-year-old third son of Kim Jong-il, as the “successor”.
Kim Jong-un appeared in the spotlight of North Korean politics for the first time in autumn last year as a member of the ruling party’s Central Committee and vice chairman of the party’s Central Military Committee. Tagging along with his father, Kim Jong-un had just started to climb the ladder to successor status.
The process of transferring power to the third-generation leader is still in its earliest stage and thus is not comparable with the transition from Kim Il-sung to Kim Jong-il, on which more than 20 years were spent. Kim Jong-un’s support base within the military has not been solidified.
Veteran senior officials of the country will try to bring the young, inexperienced successor up to speed and minimise disorder during the power transition period under a collective leadership regime. It is inconceivable that North Korea, a nation with everything under heavy state control, will fall into major disorder immediately.
However, twists and turns are expected. With the lack of a strong leader, it is impossible to completely rule out the possibility that power struggles or a military coup d’etat will take place. There are fears that a huge number of North Koreans will become refugees.
Last year, North Korea sank a South Korean naval reconnaissance ship in a torpedo attack in the Yellow Sea and fired artillery at a small South Korean island.
The international community must remain vigilant against such military provocations and other dangerous actions.
Of particular concern is a scenario in which North Korea adheres more firmly to the possession of nuclear arms to protect the current regime, thereby making its status as a nuclear power a fait accompli.
Kim Jong Il showed his ambition to make his country a major military power by test-launching long-range ballistic missiles and conducting nuclear tests.
If Pyongyang is able to arm their missiles with nuclear weapons after carrying out a third nuclear test and going ahead with test-launching another ballistic missile, it will considerably worsen the security environment in Asia. It is feared the direct threat to Japan will increase dramatically, as the nation is within range of Rodong missiles.
Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda called a Security Council meeting Monday and issued directives calling for increased measures to collect information on North Korea’s future moves and share information closely with the countries concerned, including the United States, South Korea and China.
For the time being, it is necessary to reinforce surveillance and monitoring activities by the Self-Defence Forces and other organizations and see how the new North Korean regime will unfold.
The issue of Japanese nationals abducted to North Korea has been left deadlocked since Pyongyang unilaterally stopped investigating the abductions three years ago. Cooperation with the United States and South Korea plus China and Russia will be indispensable to move ahead toward a solution of the issue.
Noda must conduct diplomacy positively. We hope he will hold in-depth discussions with Chinese leaders during his China trip starting Sunday.
China is the biggest provider of assistance to North Korea and was the first country to accept Kim Jong Un as the successor to Kim Jong-il. It remains unclear how China will move in the aftermath of Kim’s death. If China follows the conventional way of expanding economic aid to the reclusive communist country while tacitly approving its nuclear development programs, including one involving uranium enrichment, it will only help North Korea enhance its nuclear capabilities.
Kim’s death came right after it was reported that Washington and Pyongyang would soon hold consultative talks on food aid, a halt to uranium enrichment activities and acceptance of nuclear inspectors in preparation for the resumption of six-nation talks on North Korea’s nuclear weapons development programs.
Nuclear arms, ballistic missiles and the abduction of Japanese nationals are huge “negative legacies” left unresolved during the era of Kim Jong Il. Resolving these issues has been left in the hands of his successor.
The international community, and above all the five nations involved with North Korea in the six-party talks―Japan, the United States, China, South Korea and Russia―must not allow North Korea to become an established nuclear power.
North Korea will not be able to reconstruct its bankrupt economy as long as it refuses to cooperate in solving the abduction issue and does not change course on nuclear arms. It is essential to make the new North Korean leadership aware of this.
