Foreign investment banks predict South Korea’s export growth will likely top those of its Asian peers mainly due to increased demand from China and a free trade pact with the U.S. set to take effect early this year, data showed Monday.
Global investment bank HSBC expected Korea’s export to grow 9.7 percent on-year in the first quarter of 2012, with the figure to stay above the 9 percent through most of the remainder of the year, according to the data by the Korea Center for International Finance.
China’s export growth is estimated at 6 percent in the first quarter with the corresponding figure for Japan to be minus 9.8 percent, the data showed.
Korea’s exports grew nearly 20 percent on-year in 2011 to a record high of US$556.5 billion, according to the Korea Customs Service.
Foreign IBs including Credit Suisse cited the high quality of Korean goods, firm demand from emerging markets and a more positive U.S. economy as reasons for Korea’s rosy export outlook.
Another IB, Nomura, forecast Korea’s gross domestic product will expand 2.3 percent when the Korea-U.S. FTA goes into effect in the face of a global economic slowdown.
However, the IBs painted a dim picture of a dent in firms’ investment, a stagnation in real income growth and a slowdown in the housing market for Korea.
