Foreign investment banks forecast different outlooks on Korea’s export growth in the second half of the year.

According to Korea Center for International Finance, Bank of America, Merril Lynch and Standard Chartered Bank expected that there was little possibility that Korea’s exports will drop again as the world economy was gradually recovering.

According to the Bank of Korea, the nation’s exports in July marked $44.6 billion, the biggest drop in the past 33 months. The trade surplus was $2.7 billion, half of that in the previous month.

The BOA predicted that exports and growth of emerging Asian countries including Korea would increase as principle exporting nations such as China, Europe and U.S. pass their slowest points in growth in the second half of the year.

Standard Chartered also expected that Korea’s exports would recover in the fourth quarter if China’s economy improved as expected in the second half.

Credit Suisse and Morgan Stanley, on the other hand, forecast that Korea’s economy may face risk in the second half if the nation’s sluggish exports continue.

Nomura shared a similar opinion, that Korea’s exports and imports may sharply drop, considering that the nation’s business survey index in July reached its lowest point in 39 months.

The Japan-based global bank also said Korea’s consumer inflation is expected to further slow in the second half of this year as the economy’s growth remains low on weak exports amid global uncertainties.

Consumer prices will likely grow 1.4 percent on-year in the third quarter of 2012, slowing from a 2.4 percent gain in the April to June quarter, Nomura economist Kwon Young-sun was quoted by Yonhap News as saying through a conference call from Singapore.

Meanwhile, the BOK predicted last month that the nation’s second-half export growth would be bigger.

By Park Min-young  (claire@heraldcorp.com)