North Korea has ratcheted up tensions again in a measured way by firing what appeared to be short-range missiles into the East Sea for three consecutive days starting Saturday. Speculation has arisen about the North’s intention behind the launches, which it claimed were part of “a normal military exercise.”
Experts note the missile firings seem aimed at putting pressure on President Park Geun-hye ahead of her planned visit to Beijing to discuss tension-easing measures with Chinese leaders. Some pessimistic analysts say North Korea may continue its confrontational stance well into Park’s five-year presidency ― perhaps for two to three years.
The communist regime is certainly being driven into the corner by the firm position of Seoul and Washington not to make concessions to its threats or provocations, while remaining open to dialogue on the condition it comply with its international commitments and obligations. The North, however, appears to have not yet given up its attempt at maximizing its bargaining chips through a combination of saber-rattling ― somewhat toned down this time ― and ploys to fuel internal discord in the South and disrupt international efforts toward dismantling its nuclear arsenal.
While rejecting Seoul’s proposals for dialogue to settle matters regarding a suspended joint industrial complex, North Korea has sent South Korean companies letters expressing its willingness to discuss face-to-face with them all outstanding issues, including the retrieval of raw materials and finished goods left behind at the factory park in a town north of the inter-Korean border. Pyongyang invited a senior aide to Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe last week for talks with its senior leaders, fueling speculation it has tried to drive a wedge between Tokyo and its two key allies ― Seoul and Washington ― on coordinating North Korea policy.
Under these circumstances, South Korea needs sophisticated tactics and a concerted posture at home to deal with North Korea more efficiently. In this sense, it is undesirable and worrisome that the presidential office and the Unification Ministry appear to have been out of step with each other.
The ministry hurriedly proposed talks with Pyongyang last week, hours after an abrupt instruction from Park. Presidential aides came forward earlier this month to refute the ministry’s positions on inter-Korean dialogue. Such discords have only weakened the voices and roles of the ministry in charge of inter-Korean affairs, restricting Seoul’s negotiating capability over the long term.
President Park has pursued a policy of building trust with North Korea to achieve peace and stability on the peninsula. She may now need to pay more heed to the argument that trust should be built between her office and the Unification Ministry before trying to put the Korean Peninsula trust-building process on track.