From
Send to

[Editorial] Alert over debt

Risk management needed in reinvigorating economy

Dec. 23, 2014 - 21:16 By Korea Herald
Combining expansionary policy measures with structural reforms has been cited by economic policymakers here as a sensible approach to reinvigorating the sluggish economy. This stance framed the direction of economic policies for 2015, which were approved at a meeting of economy-related ministers Monday.

The Ministry of Strategy and Finance, which drew up the policy framework, said that expansionary macroeconomic policy would be maintained next year to help boost the economy. Finance Minister Choi Kyung-hwan stressed that the government would also put priority on sweeping reforms of labor, public, education and financial sectors to strengthen the country’s economic fundamentals and consolidate the foundation for sustainable growth.

In its economic outlook for 2015, the ministry revised down next year’s growth forecast from 4 percent to 3.8 percent, which is still slightly above the 3.4 percent estimate for this year.

Choi said Korea’s economy, the fourth largest in Asia, would show some signs of improving next year, citing a drop in crude oil prices, expansionary fiscal measures and incentives designed to increase corporate investments. In order to help strengthen the momentum of economic recovery, the government plans to front-load 58 percent of budgetary spending in the first half of 2015.

As many economists note, domestic consumption should be boosted to ensure growth amid uncertain external conditions. In this regard, the government is committed to encouraging consumers to spend more, creating more well-paying jobs as well as expanding benefits for elderly and less-privileged people.

While pursuing measures to reinvigorate the economy, policymakers need to pay attention to controlling external and internal risks. They may have to be especially vigilant when it comes to the rapidly growing debts both in households and the public sector.

Household debt, which exceeded 1,000 trillion won ($908 billion) in the third quarter, was cited by a central bank policy board member last week as “one of the biggest weaknesses” of Korea’s economy. The country’s public-sector debt also rose by nearly 10 percent from a year earlier to 898.7 trillion won at the end of last year.

Finance Ministry officials said they would carefully monitor the overall size of debt and the capability of borrowers to repay. But more effective and serious measures may be needed to prevent debt problems from getting out of control.

Household loans will continue to rise if restrictions on mortgage lending remain loose and the central bank moves to further cut the base interest rate, which stands at a record low of 2 percent. Public-sector debt is also set to increase rapidly due to expansionary fiscal policy, stalled reform of public corporations and a rise in welfare costs.

Economic policymakers should rein in household and private-sector debts but at the same time need to avoid imposing overly excessive regulations that could dampen economic recovery. They should now prove their adroitness at striking a balance between reinvigorating the economy and curbing a debt increase.