South Korea has recently begun consultations with the U.S. over whether to revise their long-standing missile agreement and allow Seoul to develop longer-range ballistic missiles in order to better safeguard itself, according to a government source.
The move comes as North Korea continues to develop nuclear programs and long-range missiles that pose a threat not only to its southern neighbor, but also to the U.S.
“Seoul and Washington have begun consultations since late last year as both share common understanding to a certain degree on the issue of the revision of the missile agreement,” said the source on condition of anonymity.
“The consultations have just gotten under way. Thus, we cannot yet predict how the results (of the consultations) will come out regarding the range and payload of the missiles Seoul will be allowed to develop.”
Under a 2001 revision to the initial agreement, which Seoul signed in 1979 with Washington, South Korea is banned from developing ballistic missiles with a range of over 300 kilometers. It also stipulates that a payload must weigh 500 kilograms or less.
Despite concerns that the development of longer-range missiles could provoke neighboring countries such as China, Russia and Japan, some experts and military officials here believe that the range should be extended to around 1,000 kilometers to bring all of North Korea’s territory within striking range.
“North Korea now has considerable missile capabilities. Even if we should not use them, we should have capabilities on par with North Korea’s to enhance our deterrence capabilities,” said Cheon Seong-whun, a senior research fellow at the Korea Institute for National Unification.
“The neighboring countries could respond sensitively to the extension of the range. However, we can persuade them given that they do have their own long-range missiles and we are not making any provocations or posing any threats to them.”
North Korea currently has ballistic missiles with a maximum range of 3,000-4,000 kilometers deployed in its military units.
However, Seoul only has indigenous Hyunmoo-I and II missiles with a range of 180-300 kilometers and U.S.-made ATACMS missiles with a range of 165-300 kilometers.
With the ballistic missile ban, Seoul has instead focused on cruise missiles such as Hyunmoo-3C missiles with a range of 1,500 kilometers. But cruise missiles are less powerful than ballistic ones and easy to be intercepted due to their slow speed.
After the communist state test-fired the Daepodong Two missile in April 2009, calls for the revision were sparked here. However, the U.S. government was apparently reluctant to discuss the revision at the time.
Observers said that such a negative U.S. stance has recently showed some signs of change when the reclusive state has been relentlessly seeking to develop long-range missiles that could threaten U.S. territory.
During his recent visit to China, U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates said that North Korea with its continuing development of missiles and nuclear weapons is becoming a “direct” threat to the U.S., pointing out that the North will have developed an intercontinental missile “within a five-year time frame.”
The longest-range North Korean missile under development is the Daepodong Two missile, presumed to have a range of more than 6,700 kilometers, far enough to hit parts of Alaska, but still incapable of reaching the U.S. mainland.
All the two test launches of the Daepodong Two missile failed. In July 2006, the missile exploded in the air right after lift-off. In April 2009, what it claimed to be a satellite launch also ended in failure after the rocket fell into the Pacific Ocean after traveling some 3,200 kilometers from the North’s launch site of Musudanri in North Hamgyeong Province.
The longest-range North Korean ballistic missile, deployed since 2007, is the Musudan missile with a range of 3,000-4,000 kilometers. This missile, in theory, brings Guam, the key U.S. strategic base in the Asia-Pacific region, within its range.
By Song Sang-ho (sshluck@heraldcorp.com)
