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BOK forecast to hold rate, focus on financial stability

Sept. 7, 2015 - 10:55 By KH디지털2

South Korea's central bank is expected to keep its key interest rate unchanged at a record-low this month as it continues to assess the impact of previous rate cuts and gauge the timing of a U.S. rate hike, a poll showed Monday.

A whopping 13 out of 15 economists surveyed by Yonhap Infomax, the financial news arm of Yonhap News Agency, projected the Bank of Korea to hold its policy rate steady at 1.5 percent at its monthly rate-setting meeting Friday.

In efforts to bolster growth in Asia's fourth-largest economy that is faltering from anemic domestic demand and sagging exports, the central bank delivered four rate cuts in the past year, sending the key interest rate lower by a total of 1 percentage point.

The latest rate cut took place in June as the BOK took pre-emptive action to brace against the economic fallout from the unexpected Middle East Respiratory Syndrome outbreak.

The respondents said the central bank will decide to stand pat for September as it extends its wait-and-see mode to another month amid escalating uncertainty in the global economy.

"Its stance to freeze the rate will sustain as it watches out for developments in the world's two biggest economies and whether economic growth on its home turf meets its forecast," said Park Hyuk-soo, an analyst at Daishin Economic Research Institute.

The BOK has faced criticism over the effectiveness of its easing steps as they failed to revive the economy and instead jacked up the country's already-bulky household debt. A rise in household debt is feared to constrict consumption and heighten credit risks.

"Anticipation for an additional rate view has climbed as exports are worse than expected. But with household debt on the rise and the won-dollar exchange rate nearing the 1,200-won level, there seems to be little that the BOK can get from trimming the rate," said Lhee Jung-bum, an analyst at Korea Investment & Securities.

Lhee also mentioned the risks entailing an expected rate hike by the U.S. Federal Reserve.

"There are risks of an additional rate cut spurring capital outflow at a time when the U.S. is considering a rate hike. We believe the government will observe global funds flow for the time being," he said.

Others supported the case for a rate freeze, taking note of the government's recent push for structural reform.

"The government's stance has recently shifted to structural factors such as reforming the labor market and the country's family-controlled conglomerates from propping up the local property market," said Lee Jae-hyun, an analyst at Yuanta Securities Korea.

A minority of the polled economists, however, called for a rate cut, citing the country's weak economic data.

"We have been holding the view that the monetary policy stance of the BOK is data dependent and we believe that the extent of export plummeting is large enough to trigger another interest rate cut in September's monetary policy committee," said Raymond Yueng of ANZ.

South Korea's exports dropped 14.7 percent on-year in August, falling at the fastest pace in six years. It also marked the eighth consecutive month of decline.

But the majority refuted the forecast.

"While concerns about sluggish exports linger, this is not a problem that can be solved through a rate cut. The ongoing debate on the pros and cons of a rate cut is another pressure the central bank may want to avoid," said Park. (Yonhap)