A debate is brewing here over how to cope with demographic challenges that threaten to further undermine the country’s growth potential already being sapped by declining exports and sluggish industrial activities.

The number of people aged 15-64 in Korea is set to begin decreasing in 2017 after peaking at 37.04 million next year. The country’s working-age population is forecast to continue to drop to 32.89 million in 2030, 28.87 million in 2040 and 21.86 million in 2060, according to data from the state statistical office. Accordingly, the proportion of economically active people in the total population, which reached the highest level at 73.1 percent in 2012, is projected to be reduced to 49.7 percent by 2060.

This steep shrinkage in the workforce, which is inevitable in a country with a rapidly aging population and among the world’s lowest birthrates, is feared to further drag down Korea’s weakening growth potential.

Its potential growth rate -- the maximum possible rate at which an economy can grow without triggering inflation -- remained above 4 percent in most of the past decade, but many experts now presume it may have slipped below 3 percent.

The Korea Development Institute, a state-funded think tank, forecasts the country will see its potential growth rate falling from 3.1 percent in 2011-15 to 3.0 percent in 2016-20, 2.5 percent in 2021-25, 1.8 percent in 2026-30 and 1.4 percent in 2031-35. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development estimates it to slide to 1.91 percent by 2034.

Lee Geun-tae, a senior researcher at the LG Economic Research Institute, warned of the possibility that the decline might be far steeper than initially estimated.

“Korea’s potential growth rate may tumble into the 1 percent range as early as 2020 if our economy fails to boost technological competitiveness and create new demand,” Lee said.

Amid this increasing concern over the shrinking growth potential, calls have been mounting for the country to accept more immigrants.

A report released by the Korea Economic Research Institute last year proposed increasing the number of foreign residents in the country to 3 million by 2030 to make up for a severe workforce shortage.

In a recent debate on demographic challenges, former Finance Minister Kang Bong-kyun also advocated the policy to open doors wider to immigrants persistently.

Calls for more active immigration policy mirror the growing frustration with ineffective efforts to boost the country’s fertility rate, which has been stuck at a level of around 1.2 percent over the past years.

Figures released by Statistics Korea on Wednesday showed the number of childbirths in the country fell for the second month in a row in September. This downward trend, which followed a slight gain in the previous five months, may well disappoint government policymakers who have poured more than 81 trillion won ($70.6 billion) since 2006 into implementing measures to help raise the birthrate.

Some experts, however, note that demographic problems facing the country cannot be resolved just by trying to accept more immigrants.

“It is realistically impossible for Korea to take in a massive number of immigrants like the U.S. and Australia,” said Lee Kyu-yong, a researcher at the Korea Labor Institute. “It is necessary to take a more considerate approach, given the possibility that a significant inflow of migrants may cause or exacerbate social conflicts.”

He suggested policy focus should be put on accepting highly skilled young immigrants who can make more contributions to boosting the country’s competitiveness and easing pressures on its welfare system.

Aside from the difference in their views on the optimal immigration policy, most experts agree on the urgent need to set up a system for handling the issue from a comprehensive perspective as a matter related to employment, welfare and industrial growth.

More effective programs should be worked out to help all foreign residents, including migrant workers, adapt to and play meaningful roles in Korean society, they say.

In this vein, it is also necessary to tackle problems with the growing number of illegal foreign laborers in a more serious manner, some experts indicate, saying consideration may be given to legalizing the status of those who have worked here for a certain period without causing trouble.

By Kim Kyung-ho (khkim@heraldcorp.com)