The North Korean military may eliminate the country’s leader Kim Jong-il and his heir Jong-un in case of a mass uprising, a researcher at a South Korean state-funded think tank said Friday.

“If a commotion breaks out in North Korea, Kim Jong-il and Jong-un are likely to be the main target of public anger,” Park Hyeong-jung, senior research fellow at the Korea Institute for National Unification, said in a seminar on what kind of changes are expected in the North and how the South should prepare for reunification.

Referring to the case of Egypt, where the military overthrew Hosni Mubarak’s dictatorship amid mass protests, as a coup, Park said the North could follow a similar path.

Kim Jong-il has pursued a military-first or “songun” policy since taking over the country in 1994 when his father, the North’s founder Kim Il-sung, died. The North’s 1.1-million-strong military has since served as the backbone of Kim Jong-il’s iron-fisted rule.

“Kim Jong-un will have to purge many in power to put his people in key posts as he builds up his support base, and this could stir antagonism within the military,” Park said.

Many of the heavyweights from the country’s “military-first” times such as Kim Il-chol, O Kuk-ryol and Cho Myong-rok have already collapsed, he said.

“Kim Jong-un is trying to tighten his grip on the reclusive state by promoting both fear and love,” Park said.

There are no immediate signs, however, of a military revolt in the communist state.

Jasmine Revolution, or the democratic uprisings in the Middle East and northern Africa, could also have an impact in the long run on China, said a researcher at another think tank affiliated with Seoul’s top intelligence agency.

“China is also likely to face demands for democratization in the future,” said Park Byung-gwang, a research fellow the Institute for National Security Strategy.

“If China makes democratic progress, it won’t be easy for China to take sides with North Korea as it has in the past.”

By Kim So-hyun (sophie@heraldcorp.com)