Experts negative about inter-Korean ties; N.K. focuses on rallying people behind successor


North Korea is unlikely to make any positive change in its policy toward the South for the time being and will focus on rallying its people behind its late leader Kim Jong-il’s successor Jong-un, experts said Sunday.

Based on their analysis of the North Korean media’s New Year’s joint editorial, they painted a negative outlook for inter-Korean ties this year, which deteriorated after the two deadly attacks in 2010 that killed 50 South Koreans.

The editorial once again upbraided Seoul, reiterating its belligerent warning that “the group of the traitors in the South Korean leadership will face grave consequences for its inhumane, anti-national acts.”

The denouncement targeted Seoul’s decision not to send its government mourning delegation to Pyongyang and its restriction on private condolence delegations to the North.

Using a big portion of the wording to worship the late leader and admire the young successor, the editorial signaled there may not be any substantial changes to foreign and domestic policy for the time being.

“The North appears to have already concluded that it is realistically difficult to improve ties with the Lee Myung-bak administration and that it will not talk with it,” said Cheong Seong-chang, senior fellow at the Sejong Institute.

“Rather than engaging in dialogue with the incumbent government in Seoul, it may focus on pressuring the South in the hope that the next government will succeed the policy of engaging the North, which was implemented by the former liberal governments.”

The editorial came after the North’s powerful decision-making organ National Defense Commission said in a statement on Friday that it will not “deal with the Lee administration.”

Ahn Chan-il, director of the World North Korea Research Center, said that the North is making its harsh rhetoric against Seoul to rally public support for Jong-un, who the North’s ruling Workers’ Party’s Central Committee on Friday hailed as “supreme commander” of the 1.2-million-strong military.

“To absorb the shock from Kim’s death, it needs an external enemy to cause tension with it and bring its people together under the tension. It may try to whitewash its internal weakness by heightening anti-Seoul sentiment and stressing unity,” he said.

“For the time being, I believe there is no likelihood of better inter-Korea ties. The Seoul government needs to respond in a calm manner.”

Yang Moo-jin, professor at the University of North Korean studies, however, said that the editorial still left open some possibility of dialogue with the Lee government.

“The editorial did not mention President Lee directly in its criticism against the South, which shows that the North has taken some caution about the wording,” he said.

“It appears that while leaving open the possibility of dialogue with the South, it would adjust the level of its response depending on how Seoul moves. It will, thus, pay close attention to what President Lee will say during his New Year’s address.”

What also drew keen attention is that the North demanded the withdrawal of the U.S. forces on the Korean Peninsula for the first time since it called for the pullout in its 2007 editorial.

“The mention of the pullout apparently came as it carries out a struggle against the (U.S.) imperialism and stresses cooperation between South and North Koreans alone,” Yang said.

“It also appears intended to divide South Koreans and drive a wedge between South Korea and the U.S. Another intention is to get the upper hand in its future negotiations with the U.S. and stress that the pullout is to top the agenda.”

Cheong of the Sejong Institute said that the demand for the withdrawal is partially aimed at rallying its people together when any significant improvement in relations with the U.S. facing a presidential election this year is unlikely.

Noting that the “military-first” principle was mentioned 17 times in the editorial ― compared to 14 times last year ― Cheong said that the North would concentrate on consolidating power behind the third-generation successor.

He also pointed out the number of economy-related words such as “light industry and agriculture” has significantly dwindled, saying that the North’s economic forecast for this year is downbeat.

“As the global economy is generally in the doldrums and major political events are scheduled for this year across the world, the North appears to believe that any significant economic restoration will not be easy,” he said.

Cheong added that Seoul should support civilian-level inter-Korean exchanges in its efforts to improve ties with Pyongyang, stressing that Seoul should not make the mistake of holding onto past conflicts with the North.

By Song Sang-ho (sshluck@heraldcorp.com)