Will President Trump’s new Afghanistan strategy alter the dynamics of America’s longest and most frustrating war? Do commanders really have any better chance of succeeding now than when this conflict began 16 years ago?I put those questions by phone Tuesday to Gen. John “Mick” Nicholson Jr., who for more than 18 months has commanded US forces in Kabul. This is his fourth tour in Afghanistan and his sixth year of service there. He probably knows as much about this difficult and costly war as any

Intelligence officers sometimes talk about “blowback,” when covert actions go bad and end up damaging the country that initiated them. A year later, that is surely the case with Russia‘s secret attempt to meddle in the US presidential election, which has brought a string of adverse unintended consequences for Moscow.The Kremlin is still issuing cocky statements accusing the US of “political schizophrenia” in its response to Russian hacking. And there are vestiges of the triumphal tone I encounte

After weeks of belligerent rhetoric, North Korea took a pause Tuesday. But where is the mercurial Kim Jong-un headed next? US officials are debating whether he may want direct talks with Washington about a formal treaty to replace the 1953 armistice agreement that ended the Korean War.The US has been pursuing a dual path, threatening military conflict (semi-believably because of President Trump‘s verbal thunderbolts) while also urging stabilization of a denuclearized Korean Peninsula. The diplom

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has defiance in his blood. It’s said his grandfather once asked what would happen if America defeated North Korea in war, to which his father answered: “If we lose, I will be sure to destroy the Earth. What good is the Earth without North Korea?”President Trump has decided to confront what’s probably the most reckless, risk-taking regime on the planet. His hope for a diplomatic solution depends on convincing North Korea and China that he’s ready for the “fire and

The North Korean nuclear threat is a “hinge” moment for the US and China, and for the new international order both nations say they want. If Washington and Beijing manage to stay together in dealing with Pyongyang, the door opens on a new era in which China will play a larger and more responsible role in global affairs, commensurate with its economic power. If the great powers can’t cooperate, the door will slam shut -- possibly triggering a catastrophic military conflict on the Korean Peninsula

Here’s a contrarian thought: President Trump had the right instinct to insist that China help resolve the nightmare problem of North Korea. A peaceful solution is impossible without help from the other great power in East Asia.As Trump nears the threshold of a military crisis with North Korea, he needs to sustain this early intuition -- and not be driven into actions that may look tough but would leave every player worse off. The template hasn’t really changed from the first Korean War in 1950:

If the ghosts who inhabit the walls of the CIA could talk, they would tell Director Mike Pompeo to be careful. The agency is entering a danger zone where a White House in turmoil wants the CIA to take aggressive action overseas, but hasn’t developed the clear strategy or political support needed to sustain it.Pompeo is an activist, an exuberant politician with a flair for delivering one-liners. He’s a risk-taker, who wants the agency to be more aggressive both in collecting information and using

The Chinese government, subtle masters of propaganda, seem to have discovered a Sun Tzu formula for taming dissent on the internet: The best strategy may not be to confront critics directly, but to lull or distract them with a tide of good news.This intriguing argument is suggested by a recent article in the American Political Science Review titled “How the Chinese Government Fabricates Social Media Posts for Strategic Distraction, Not Engaged Argument.” With complex data, it supports a simple t

The diplomatic machinations that have enveloped Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar may seem like a membership feud in a Persian Gulf club for the wealthy. But their quarrel highlights battles that have been roiling the Middle East since the Arab Spring began nearly seven years ago.The boycott against Qatar announced last month by the Saudis, Emiratis, Bahrainis and Egyptians took the President Donald Trump administration by surprise -- and triggered a mediation effort this week by

When Donald Trump meets Vladimir Putin this Friday in Hamburg, Germany, the two presidents should have in the back of their minds the insignia worn by the Syrian Democratic Forces militia, which is America’s main ally in Syria. The patch shows a map of Syria bisected by the sharp blue line of the Euphrates River.The Euphrates marks the informal “deconfliction” line between the Russian-backed Syrian regime west of the river and the US-backed and Kurdish-led SDF to the east. In the past several we

Let’s imagine a Chinese “applied history” project, similar to the one at Harvard’s Belfer Center that helped spawn professor Graham Allison’s widely discussed book “Destined for War.”Allison’s historical analysis led him to posit a “Thucydides Trap” and the danger (if not inevitability) of war between a rising China and a dominant America, like the ancient conflict between Athens and Sparta chronicled by the Greek historian Thucydides. A study by the Belfer Center’s Applied History Project ident

Here in the capital of Iraqi Kuridstan, the mood is “Kurdistan First” with the announcement of a referendum on independence in September. In neighboring Saudi Arabia, it‘s “Saudi First,” as a brash young crown prince steers the kingdom toward a more assertive role in the region. In Moscow, where I visited a few weeks ago, it’s “Russia First,” with a vengeance. And so it goes, around most of the world.The politics of national self-interest is on steroids these days. For global leaders, it‘s the “

The sudden embargo on Qatar pushed this month by the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia has peeved the State Department and Pentagon, drawing sharp criticism of those two close Gulf allies.The Qatar flap has also opened a fascinating window on the inner workings of the Trump administration’s foreign policy. It’s a rare instance in which Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, the quiet man in the Trump team, appears to have convinced the president to back off his initial course and, as a White Hous

Forewarned is forearmed. So perhaps the country is lucky that President Trump’s allies have floated the possibility that he might fire special counsel Robert Mueller. This speculation allows citizens to reflect on the consequences of such an action.Trump has already taken the country to a darker place than even his sharpest critics would have imagined six months ago. He has brought to the White House the values of a failed Atlantic City casino owner turned reality-TV star. We don’t have to belie

What does the FBI director do when he suspects the president is a manipulative liar? The answer in James Comey‘s case is that he writes memos, tries to evade demands for loyalty -- and anguishes about protecting himself and the FBI.But by Comey’s own admission, perhaps he should have done more.The big news had already surfaced before Comey’s appearance Thursday at the Senate Intelligence Committee, with the release of his prepared testimony. What we got at the hearing was the raw morality play,

When Russian President Vladimir Putin invited NBC’s Megyn Kelly to question him onstage at a glitzy forum here, maybe he thought he’d have an easier time than Donald Trump did in his confrontation with Kelly during the 2016 campaign. It didn’t work out that way.Putin’s appearance at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum was meant to showcase Russia’s role in the global economy. And in Putin’s prepared remarks, he was a smooth, genial salesman for his country. But then came a session wi