As 2017 wraps up and 2018 beckons, it‘s worth reviewing what we forecast for China in the year now ending, and to cast ahead for what themes might play out over the next 12 months. After this week’s meeting of Communist Party leaders at the Central Economic Work Conference, we can expect their targets and objectives for 2018. And these meetings have great import: It was the 2015 meeting that started the ongoing “supply-side reform” campaign.Last year we focused on a couple of points. First, watc

It’s possible that more than half of the US’ trade deficit is a mirage -- an artifact of corporate shenanigans designed to avoid taxes.　Official statistics say that the US trade deficit is about 3 percent of gross domestic product -- smaller than in the 2000s, but still historically large.But a recent Goldman Sachs note about tax reform makes the startling claim that the real trade deficit is much smaller -- less than 1.5 percent. If this claim is right, the trade deficit has shrunk by more than

When UN member states vote Thursday on a resolution condemning America’s recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, Ambassador Nikki Haley will be watching. As she tweeted Tuesday, “The US will be taking names.”　President Donald Trump endorsed the threat Wednesday at the opening of a cabinet meeting, suggesting that countries that vote against the US in the UN General Assembly will potentially lose foreign assistance.　It’s easy to shrug off this bravado. The UN provides members with an accoun

With the passage of the Republican tax bill, we’re now getting a debate over whether it will become more popular in time for the 2018 midterm elections. The answer? All that matters is its effect on the economy.　The bill is incredibly unpopular right now. Indeed, it‘s rare for Congress to pass anything this unpopular. Harry Enten documents it: This tax cut is more unpopular than tax hikes were during the presidencies of Bill Clinton and George H. W. Bush.　It’s not likely that will change a lot.

Who is the leader of the free world? Important as the question sounds, I’m beginning to wonder if it’s better left unanswered.The US president is no longer the obvious choice. Even the new US National Security Strategy, filled with bombastic statements such as “the whole world is lifted by America’s renewal and the re-emergence of American leadership,” acknowledges growing competition among powers. And of course “America first” is the slogan of a national, not a global, leader.So who, if not Don

Reviving manufacturing has become a prime policy objective for national leaders from Washington to Beijing to New Delhi. We can debate whether chasing factories is worth the effort in the 21st century, but not the difficulty of building and maintaining a robust industrial sector in the face of relentless global competition and technological change.At least one country seems to have figured out how to do just that, however, and a highly unexpected one: Japan.Factories churning out cars, chips and

Over the past few weeks, people in Beijing have been riveted by the so-called migrant “clean-out” -- the government’s attempt to evict tens of thousands of migrant workers from their homes in the poorer parts of the city. What’s not being discussed, however, is how the crackdown could threaten one of the government’s other main priorities: managing debt.　In China, mobility is legally restricted according to a household registration system, called the hukou. Chinese citizens receive an urban or r

During Russian President Vladimir Putin’s annual press conference Thursday, a friendly journalist asked Putin whether the escalating tension in relations with the US and the crumbling of arms control treaties would draw Russia into an unsustainable arms race. “We will ensure our security without engaging in an arms race,” the president replied, citing widely diverging dollar numbers for the US and Russian defense budgets. That’s a simplistic answer from a politician starting an election campaign

Despite a US unemployment rate that’s at its lowest level in 17 years, gloomy types manage to see dark omens.Some, especially those shaped by the inflationary period in the late 1970s, fear that when the labor market achieves a state of full employment, as it may have already, we will see not just higher wages, but also an inflationary spiral that could get out of hand without a rapid tightening of monetary policy.　Other skeptics, enamored by new technologies like robots, artificial intelligence

The South Korean mastermind behind K-pop band BTS, which was tweeted about more than any celebrity in the world this year, is considering an initial public offering as the $5 billion industry that unleashed Psy’s “Gangnam Style” climbs the charts in the US and China.Big Hit Entertainment has talked with its shareholders -- which included Legend Holdings Corp.’s venture-capital arm and LB Investment -- about an IPO, Bang Si-hyuk, the company’s chief executive officer and founder, said during an i

To judge by the pomp and shuttle diplomacy, Latin America and China are best of friends. Witness the bonhomie in Punta del Este, where delegates from 33 nations in the Americas just rolled out the red carpet for authorities from Beijing and scores of corporate bigwigs at a business summit -- one of many parleys celebrating what Uruguayan President Tabare Vazquez hailed as “the new normal China,” and his region’s chance to engage with a “champion of world trade and engine of global commerce.”　The

Democrats won a special Senate election in deeply conservative Alabama, narrowing the Republicans’ slim majority in the chamber, and likely generating political panic and infighting among scared Republicans.　 Doug Jones, a former federal prosecutor, became the first Democrat to win an Alabama Senate seat in a quarter century. He defeated Roy Moore, a former state Supreme Court justice whom multiple women said had sexually assaulted or harassed them years ago when they were teenagers.　The result

With Uber’s problems grabbing all the headlines, it’s easy to overlook the fact that the other great “sharing economy” company, Airbnb, is also having issues caused by an overaggressive expansion and a tendency to ignore rules, even if they’re reasonable. Because of these issues, usage of the service may be nearing its peak.　Paris, Airbnb’s second biggest city worldwide after London, is threatening to sue the US company unless it removes all the listings for rentals not registered with the city

This weekend, residents of the western Indian state of Gujarat began voting in an election whose outcome should‘ve been a foregone conclusion. Prime Minister Narendra Modi served for 12 years as Gujarat’s chief minister and remains a hugely popular figure there. His political party, the Bharatiya Janata Party, has ruled the state uninterrupted for more than two decades, dominating all forms of political, cultural and even social life. The opposition Congress is derided there as a “party of Musli

Here are two certainties about the Trump-Russia investigation: It won’t end soon. It will get uglier.　A new shoe drops almost daily in special counsel Robert Mueller’s probe. First, former national security adviser Michael Flynn pleaded guilty to lying and agreed to cooperate. Then the White House changed its story (again) on what President Donald Trump knew after he was first advised in January that Flynn posed security problems.Last week came news that Mueller had subpoenaed financial records

With resignations in the US Congress piling up and rumors that two or three dozen members could face charges of sexual misbehavior in the near future, it’s not too early to start thinking through the political impact. Could such a wave of resignations affect swing the House?　Nate Silver thinks it “probably helps Democrats’ chances” to do so, further explaining:　1. The Republican Party has more exposure to losses because they hold most of the swing seats in the House.　2. Voters will “punish” memb

I’ve written an online ethnic dining guide to the Washington area for over 20 years, and I find food a useful way to grasp how rapidly this country can change. These days, a lot of the biggest trends just aren’t on most people’s radar screens.The first and most striking dining development is the rise of Chinese regional cuisine. There are now Nanjing, Shanghai, Uighur, Shanxi, Taiwanese and other regional restaurants readily available. Real Hunan and Sichuan offerings are plentiful, in contrast

After UK and EU negotiators reached a deal opening a path for trade negotiations on Friday, arch-Brexiter Michael Gove declared British Prime Minister Theresa May had “won.” That is a statement worthy of all the now-debunked Brexit slogans. The parties‘ agreement shows the EU has given up virtually no ground, and that’s what‘s likely to happen in the trade talks, too.In plain terms, the 15-page document that closes the first stage of the talks -- according to a EU-determined sequence -- seals th

Stunning mini-revolutions have erupted in recent months in two of the world’s largest Muslim countries. The first shock came in Indonesia, where a little-known group of activists led a mass protest against the Christian governor of Jakarta. Accused of disrespecting the Prophet, the governor, a close ally of the country’s president Joko Widodo, is now in prison. In Pakistan in late November, another pop-up political outfit besieged the capital city Islamabad, forcing the government to concede to

As Russia has worked to convince the world that its military power is growing, it has concealed its costs in terms of blood and treasure. But newly revealed statistics show surprisingly low casualties despite engagements in Crimea, eastern Ukraine and Syria. It was the latest evidence that President Vladimir Putin’s military strategy is far more calculated than that of his predecessors. Boris Yeltsin’s losses in Chechnya gutted his public support and the Soviet Union’s costly, failed Afghanistan