Minimum wages are one of the most contentious topics in economic policy. Many states and cities are experimenting with big minimum wage increases, so that there is now a lot of variation across the country.To many in the news media and in the world of think tanks and activists, being pro- or anti-minimum wage is akin to a religious belief. But even in the world of economics research, there’s plenty of disagreement.　A slew of recent minimum-wage studies illustrate the point. The first, which I pr

The UK’s obvious turnabout on the desirability of a no-deal exit from the European Union shows how completely the tables have turned in the Brexit negotiations. With less than a year to seal a trade deal, the EU is nudging the UK toward an understanding that the only benign outcome is agreeing to a long transition period. That could allow a different UK team to emerge with a humbler approach.David Davis, the UK Brexit minister, has written Prime Minister Theresa May a letter complaining that the

If Federica Mogherini didn’t exist, the world’s autocrats would be trying to invent her.　As the European Union’s high representative for foreign affairs, she is a tireless advocate for engaging rogue states. Few diplomats though have pursued this kind of engagement with such moralizing puffery. In Mogherini’s world, diplomacy with dictators should not aim to transition these countries to open societies, but rather to prevent conflicts at all costs.　Just consider her trip last week to Cuba, a pla

Things are certainly going the Democrats’ way so far in the 2018 elections. They seem poised to win a majority in the US House and possibly even the Senate, and to win back dozens and dozens of other offices they lost in 2010 and 2014. But there’s still plenty of time for the party to sabotage itself.　The sheer number of people seeking to run creates a two-stage trap for Democrats. If they nominate the wrong candidates, they could lose races they should‘ve won. If they elect the wrong candidates

Will 2018 be the year of the household hangover? The latest data on the saving rate, which broke under 3 percent to 2.9 percent in November, the lowest since 2007, suggests that an encore to the ebullient buying over the holidays will not happen in the new year.Without a doubt, households are as buoyant as they’ve been in years. In the most recent consumer confidence report, only 15.2 percent of those surveyed reported jobs were “hard to get,” a 16-year low. The few economists who have forecast

Is China destined to dominate the Asia-Pacific? Among US allies and partners in the region, there seems to be a growing doubt that America can win the ongoing competition for influence with China, and that they must begin preparing for a regional order headed by Beijing. The challenge for America, then, is to ensure that this feeling of strategic fatalism doesn’t become a self-fulfilling prophecy.It is an undeniable fact that China has been making a concerted and accelerating push for regional s

Europe could not have asked for a better end to 2017. This week, data from the Markit Purchasing Managers’ Index showed that economic activity was the strongest in nearly seven years. The unemployment claims rate in Germany is at its lowest level since the early 1990s. Even Greece’s factories are enjoying the best run in nearly a decade.Indeed, the euro-zone economy must surely rank near to the top of any list of positive surprises of 2017. The European Commission believes the currency union exp

Liberals are at a loss.　 The US president, who turned out to be more vile and duplicitous than they even had imagined, may or may not be indicted within a year’s time. Meantime, the US Congress is run by conservatives who, spurred by the greed of their donors and the fears of their base, are growing ever more comfortable telling blatant lies, preparing cover-ups and counter-narratives and overhauling the nation’s tax code in the manner of a Vegas caper -- hidden from view with the cash to be div

The onset of a new year brings plenty of predictions, and so I will hazard one: Many of the biggest events of 2018 will be bound together by a common theme, namely the collision of the virtual internet with the real “flesh and blood” world. This integration is likely to steer our daily lives, our economy, and maybe even politics to an unprecedented degree.　For instance, the coming year will see a major expansion of the Internet of Things, especially home and other smart devices subject to our co

Sen. Bernie Sanders says it’s worth following the example of “our brothers and sisters in Iceland” who last year passed the world’s most demanding law on equal pay for men and women. But the legislation, which took effect on Jan. 1, could end up hurting women without some added measures. Even ultra-egalitarian Iceland isn’t ready to take them. No other country has gone as far as Iceland in demanding equal pay for equal work. The 2017 law doesn’t just expose a company that violates the principle

If President Donald Trump would actually sue Steve Bannon for violating a nondisclosure agreement made with his campaign, it would be great for the freedom of speech.That may sound strange, because Trump’s threatened lawsuit is precisely aimed to silence Bannon and other potential leakers who worked on the campaign. Bannon has been extensively quoted in excerpts published this week from the journalist Michael Wolff’s new book, “Fire and Fury: Inside the Trump White House.”But Trump’s suit would

At the 2014 World Cup soccer tournament in Brazil, the US midfielder Michael Bradley put up a statistic that wowed folks back home: He ran further than anyone else. Through three games, Bradley had covered a total of 23.4 miles, according to a micro-transmitter embedded in his cleat, while his team finished tops among nations in “work rate,” a simple measure of movement per minute otherwise known as running around.Commentators at the New York Times, US News, and NBC Sports were duly impressed. L

The revolt against sexual predation in the workplace is in full cry in the United States. But what about in Latin America, where machismo was branded and the border between seduction and assault has been elastic and riddled with legal indulgences?The outrage may be more selective and change agonizingly slow, but even in the most patriarchal societies of the Americas, the pushback is gathering force. From Mexico City to Buenos Aires, a new generation is speaking up, driving policy changes and cal

The number of Chinese registered as suffering from depression, anxiety, alcohol abuse, dementia and other mental illnesses increased by 25 percent between 2014 and 2016, according to Chinese authorities. By one recent accounting, they number 173 million. Only 20 million receive professional treatment.Long-standing social stigmas and a lack of treatment options account for most of the gap. But those biases and institutional weaknesses are starting to break down. This week, Wenzhou Kangning, a cha

The trade war didn’t happen. Prepare for a few skirmishes.It was high on many observers’ lists of things that could go badly wrong in 2017. Buying and selling of goods and services across borders not only increased last year, but also grew more than anticipated. This year may test whether that’s a durable trend or just an accident that flew in the face of politics. Part of the thanks goes to a more vigorous global economic expansion. The resilience of the international system should also get its

Monopoly power is a hot topic of economic debate. Economists are starting to ask whether increasing industrial concentration is choking off productivity growth, reducing capital investment, throttling or deterring would-be entrepreneurs, raising consumer prices, and reducing the share of national income flowing to workers.This is a good and important effort. But it’s also possible that with all the attention being paid to concentration at the industry level, there hasn’t been enough focus on the

Secretary of State Rex Tillerson may think his year-end summary of US foreign policy is a tale of success. But the remarkable op-ed article in the New York Times in fact illustrates the opposite: It shows in chapter and verse how the US lacks leverage over many of the critical challenges it faces globally. From North Korea to China to Russia and the Middle East, American objectives are clear -- and the Donald Trump administration has no credible road map to achieve them.Start with North Korea. T

Americans have never been more addicted to devices. Thanks to the mobile revolution initiated by the iPhone, the US alone is home to 238 million mobile phones and 140 million tablets that are rarely shut down. And their numbers are growing, thanks to a perpetual upgrade cycle and demand for new features. For environmentalists, it’s a looming electronic nightmare in which America’s gadget obsession consumes increasingly higher volumes of the world’s limited resources.Thankfully, the data shows th

John Austin is a man with a mission: to revive the Rust Belt. The former president of the Michigan State Board of Education, he is also a researcher at the Brookings Institution and has been the director of multiple nonprofit organizations and government commissions. In 2006 he produced a plan for Rust Belt regional revitalization. Now, in a series of blog posts for Brookings, Austin has been evaluating which local development strategies have worked, and which have failed.　Austin believes that t

Given the notoriously glacial pace of Latin American justice, Peruvian President Pedro Pablo Kuczynski’s fall from grace and, almost, from power was dizzying. Barely a week after being accused of lying about taking money from a tainted contractor, he was hauled before congress and narrowly escaped impeachment late Thursday -- an inquisitorial zeal that might make the old school generalissimos look slack.　Kuczynski’s survival is good news for Peru, which thanks to its sensible policies and market