The US is warning it will send furlough notices within weeks to almost 9,000 South Korean workers at US bases if the two countries don’t reach agreement on President Donald Trump’s demand for Seoul to increase dramatically what it pays for American troops.Trump’s push for South Korea to contribute much more has put the alliance under strain at a time when North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s regime has said it would no longer be bound by its previous promise to halt testing

In his recent state of the nation address, Russian President Vladimir Putin spent about 20 minutes on a sweeping constitutional reform proposal designed to keep him in power indefinitely -- and about twice as much time on ideas meant to boost the birth rate. This is typical of Europe’s national-conservative governments, and even some relatively liberal ones, that are preoccupied with fertility policies because of declining populations.　In a just-published working paper, economist Charles J

China is opening the deepest, darkest corner of its strained financial system to American financial institutions. It’s not clear why investors would want to go there, even with their eyes wide open.As part of President Donald Trump’s “phase one” trade deal, China will allow US institutions to apply for asset management company licenses (beginning with the provinces), permitting them to acquire non-performing loans directly from Chinese banks. Previously, foreign investors

A solution to the civil conflict in Libya is the ultimate hot potato. A series of global and regional powers have tried to bring the warring sides together; Turkey and Russia were the latest to try and fail in Moscow on Monday. Now it’s Germany’s turn, and if it fails as well, the standoff is likely to go on until the collapse of one faction or both. The complex, multisided game playing out in Libya provides a window on how things work in a new, post-Pax Americana world. An assertive

As the gateway for China’s trade with the world for more than 70 years, Hong Kong might be expected to benefit from the phase one deal that Beijing will sign with Washington on Wednesday. Chances are, things won’t pan out that way. Consider the $200 billion increase in Chinese imports from the US over the next two years that Washington hopes to see as a result of the agreement. Such a rise would involve nearly doubling inbound trade.That’s difficult, but not impossible. China&r

To judge by “Parasite” -- Bong Joon-ho’s Golden Globe-winning portrait of three Seoul families thrown into queasy proximity by the country’s wealth divide — South Korea is an Asian version of Brazil or South Africa.The poor in Bong’s black comedy are unable to escape the bottom of the heap -- living in overcrowded basement apartments, or even (in a horrifying twist) further below ground. The wealthy enjoy a life of careless riches and open skies on Seoul&rsquo

It’s often said that the best time to buy is when there’s blood on the streets. The best time to sell oil, by contrast, is when the world’s gas tanks look empty. That’s reason to temper the fear and excitement driving the oil market -- even in the face of Wednesday’s Iranian rocket strike on two joint US bases in Iraq, which sparked the biggest intraday rally for Brent crude since a September attack on a Saudi production facility.There are first- and second-order ef

Iranian Gen. Qassem Soleimani, killed last week by a US drone in Baghdad, has been credited with persuading Russian President Vladimir Putin to intervene militarily in Syria in 2015, a claim the Kremlin denies. Regardless of the truth of that particular story, though, the inevitable escalation following Soleimani’s death has the potential to change Putin’s calculus in the region.Commenting on Soleimani’s demise, the Russian Defense Ministry praised his “indisputable contr

Now that the US has taken out Qassem Soleimani, arguably the most important military figure in the 40-year history of the Islamic Republic, conventional wisdom holds that Tehran must respond with extreme prejudice. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has promised “severe retaliation,” and his regime is putting out videos of thousands of Iranian mourners demanding vengeance.What might that mean? Many commentators -- and not only in Iran or the US -- are suggesting that a new war in the Middle

Spending on US health care is out of control, expanding steadily from 5 percent of gross domestic product in 1960 to 18 percent in 2018. There are, however, ways to curb the explosion in costs from both the demand and the supply side.Health care costs per capita in the US are almost double those of other developed countries, but life expectancy is lower than many, even South Korea, according to the CIA and Eurostat. Without restraint, costs will accelerate as more and more postwar babies age. Th

The US airstrike that killed Qassem Soleimani, head of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Quds Force, and Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, a leader of Iranian-backed militias in Iraq, was not simply a sharp departure in the Trump administration’s policy toward Tehran. It also marks a larger shift in America’s response to Iranian influence and provocations in the Middle East. President Donald Trump has gambled that an extraordinary escalation will allow it to reassert control of an intensifying U

“Workers are delivering more, and they’re getting a lot less,” argued former Vice President Joe Biden in a speech at the Brookings Institution this summer. “There’s no correlation now between productivity and wages.” Sen. Elizabeth Warren, a Democratic presidential rival, agrees. Her campaign website states that “wages have largely stagnated,” even though “worker productivity has risen steadily.” The claim that productivity no longer dr

In all the “Best of the Decade” lists I’ve been seeing, one topic has been neglected: orators. I’d like to remedy that, noting that I am not necessarily endorsing anything anyone says. “Best” in this context means the most powerful and influential public speaker, not having the most salutary effect on the world.My choice for second place is Greta Thunberg. In little more than a year, Thunberg has moved from being an unheard-of 16-year-old Swedish girl to Time&

Americans are increasingly anxious about the costs of services such as health care and education. But these are the very same industries that increasingly sustain the middle class. Resolving this paradox is the key to creating the economy of the future.It’s not much of a surprise to note that prices for most physical goods have dropped, but the costs of big-ticket services have become much higher.As health care absorbs an ever-larger share of national income, many want the government to ta

South Korea’s presidential office criticized prosecutors’ decision to indict the country’s former justice minister, pushing back against a scandal that has damaged the ruling party ahead of parliamentary elections.A spokesman for President Moon Jae-in said the indictment Tuesday of ex-Justice Minister Cho Kuk raised questions about the prosecutors’ motivation. The Seoul Central District Prosecutors’ Office indicted Cho on 12 charges in all, including bribery and obs

People react so emotionally to politics, I have decided to assess the decade just past by considering something less partisan but no less illuminating: culture.Start with the music I have been listening to over the last few weeks. Every December I buy the albums that appear on the various “best of” lists. This year my pile of compact discs is mostly music recorded by women -- Billie Eilish, Angel Olsen, Sharon Van Etten, Lana Del Rey, Taylor Swift, Jenny Lewis, FKA Twigs and others.

Inequality in the US has risen a lot during the past few decades. This has sparked outrage among segments of the public, raised concern among economists and other social scientists, and revitalized America’s socialist movement.Much of the debate has been driven by the work of three French economists -- Thomas Piketty, Emmanuel Saez and Gabriel Zucman. The trio has put out a huge amount of impressive work, digging into historical archives and patching together a diverse array of modern data

As the year ends, a partial and brief cease-fire seems imminent in Donald Trump’s trade war on the world. The United States and China may sign a deal as early as next month. But make no mistake: The protectionist impulse behind the trade war remains as ineradicable as ever.Nor should it be forgotten that economic nationalism has guided the destiny of all major nations since the 19th century. According to the ideological prejudices of the present, built up over nearly four decades of global

Since the euro crisis earlier this decade, Greece has been the sick man of the monetary union.Athens has at times been in danger of crashing out of the single currency, despite three rescue programs and the restructuring of its sovereign debt. Last year the economy was still 24 percent smaller than it was in 2008. For a long time, it seemed that the best the eurozone could do was to keep propping up Greece to avoid an even bigger problem.Hence it’s remarkable that Greece’s new prime

Emmanuel Macron is the first French president in a decade who isn’t a baby boomer, and it shows.The 41-year-old’s battle to reform France’s high-tax, high-spend economy is often fought in the name of generational equality -- largely by tilting the balance away from the elderly in favor of the young. Last year, as a gesture to help young people coming to the job market, the Macron administration hiked social welfare taxes on retirees, an unpopular move that was later reversed in