The Chinese consumer has been one of the most important drivers of the world economy over the past decade, fueling hopes of prolonged growth and profits. So it’s worth looking at what’s happening to household balance sheets as COVID-19 wreaks havoc on a population now feeling the downside of growing personal leverage from the boom. In the last major financial crisis, big-spending Americans were hit hard, but the Chinese found new ways to open their wallets and took the rest of the

President Donald Trump is preparing to exit his second arms-control treaty with Russia since taking the oath of office, and the opposition is already in high dudgeon. “This is insane,” tweeted former CIA director Michael Hayden. “Another shortsighted Trump move to abandon a treaty that includes many close allies,” tweeted Samantha Power, former ambassador to the United Nations.　 But Trump’s decision is the right one -- both in the details and on principle. The dea

The coronavirus has disrupted the world in very large ways. While that battle has been waged, however, another event has almost been missed: the birth of a new kind of fiat currency, which could forever reshape the relationship between money, economic power and geopolitical clout.　 An official Chinese digital yuan, more than five years in the making, is now in pilot runs to slowly start replacing the physical legal tender. If the experiment succeeds, this new cash, valued the same as the famili

How much more stimulus can the Chinese economy take? It’s a question of crucial importance after Beijing unveiled its 2020 economic policy plans Friday. China’s 4 trillion yuan ($562 billion) stimulus package in the wake of the global financial crisis paved the way for its transformation over the past decade. In the 2000s, the country was a low-cost assembly room for the world’s supply chains. Now it’s an increasingly confident middle-income power, with a burgeoning c

The coronavirus pandemic and the resulting economic depression are going to require huge amounts of government spending. The US government is devoting resources to halting the outbreak. It’s sustaining businesses during shutdowns so that they don’t have to be rebuilt from scratch. It’s paying the bills for workers who’ve lost their jobs. It’s bailing out state and local governments whose tax revenues are disappearing and can’t finance budget deficits. And it&r

The world’s tourism hot spots are gradually reopening after the great lockdown, but they don’t look very alluring. Going to the beach will require spacing out parasols and forgetting about the drinks service, while a city break in Europe might mean keeping a mask on while shopping. Not to mention the quarantines being imposed to limit imported infections, hardly a great way to start a vacation. Public health has become a huge factor in tourism: “COVID-free” is the new fiv

An effective COVID-19 vaccine, if it ever arrives, should be treated as a public good for the whole of society. Every continent has been struck by the virus, bar Antarctica. But the combination of national self-interest and pressure for the pharmaceutical industry to turn a profit is already triggering a geopolitical bust up over who actually gets access to the vaccine first. It’s a reminder that the spoils of drug research aren’t equally divided. The system is ripe for a rethink.

Boris Johnson’s much-anticipated address to the nation Sunday night left many feeling unsatisfied, and others infuriated. For a political team that has often used pithy slogans to devastating effect, the new one unveiled to guide Britain out of the lockdown -- “Stay Alert” -- feels like an epic fail. How does one stay alert and to what, people wondered. Part of the problem was presentational. Johnson’s 13-minute speech was short on details, leaving everyone to wait unti

You might have been under the impression that the European Union has quite enough problems to manage. For one thing, there’s a pandemic going on, causing a recession and a debt crisis that might blow up the currency union. For another, two member states, Poland and Hungary, are going rogue, undermining democracy and the rule of law and increasingly seeking conflict with Brussels. I’m not the only one who’s been wondering whether the EU has a future at all. And now some red-rob

Many states in the US are racing to reopen their economies before measures such as testing, contact tracing and full-time mask-wearing are in place. But one of biggest economic effects of a hasty end of lockdowns won’t be to save businesses; it will be to kick people off of desperately needed government assistance. While almost all other developed nations are seeing their new COVID-19 cases decline as a result of lockdowns and other public-health measures, the US has only managed to reach

Governments around the world say they’re engaged in a war against the coronavirus. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi invoked the legend of the Mahabharata, fought over 18 days, as he declared, with little warning, a devastating national lockdown. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who always seems to be mentally screening a film of Winston Churchill in World War II, said that “we must act like any wartime government.” Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte, who has long d

Harvard economist Melissa Dell recently won the 2020 John Bates Clark medal, which is given to outstanding economists younger than 40. Dell’s most famous research concerns the importance of institutions in a country’s long-term political and economic development. It carries a dire warning for the US as well as other nations. What is an institution? To most people it means well-established organizations, such as big businesses or the civil service. Economists use the word more genera

The World Health Organization has been generous with its praise throughout this pandemic. China, Singapore and Ireland have all received plaudits for their handling of the coronavirus crisis. Now that a new turning point is in sight, with the infection’s spread slowing and draconian lockdown measures being gradually lifted, the WHO is promoting the Swedish way of doing things. “Sweden represents a future model. … If we wish to get back to a society in which we don’t have

Many parents felt a profound sense of relief when analyses of the coronavirus found that kids rarely show symptoms and usually aren’t at much risk. Unfortunately, that doesn’t mean they’re safe from the global pandemic. Every parent is familiar with the day-to-day perils of the COVID-19 outbreak, with playgrounds closed, social interaction limited and screen time all too tempting. But the most consequential effects of this crisis are likely to come from two areas: health an

Great global traumas have a way of revealing the gap between the sort of international system we might like and the sort of international system we actually have. The coronavirus pandemic is no exception. One lesson of the crisis is that strengthened global cooperation will be critical to preventing future outbreaks. Another lesson, however, is that we’re not likely to have a “one-world” moment anytime soon. Rather than attempt to remake the international order after the viru

If the coronavirus pandemic has made one thing clear, it’s that knowledge, preparation and science matter. Political spin can win elections and keep millions of people misinformed, but it doesn’t sway the forces of nature, of which infectious disease is one. “Reality must take precedence over public relations,” as the American physicist Richard Feynman put it in the aftermath of the Challenger disaster, “for nature cannot be fooled.” Post-pandemic, one migh

Now that Bernie Sanders has dropped out of the presidential race and endorsed presumptive candidate Joe Biden, it‘s worth considering just how profoundly Sanders seems to have shifted the policy landscape. Despite the rise of inequality and other long-term economic problems, a majority of Democrats probably felt too comfortable with the current system to embrace revolutionary change. Although the Sanders insurgency is over, many of the progressive ideas he urged on the electorate may yet c

Two constant threads that have run through the history of North Korea: Rule by the Kim dynasty, and speculation about the health of its secretive leaders. The latest incident took place this week when US officials said Monday they were unsure of Kim Jong-un’s health after they were told he was in critical condition after undergoing cardiovascular surgery. South Korea’s presidential office subsequently said Kim was conducting normal activities in a rural part of the country. Tru

The coronavirus pandemic has torn the veil off a long-obscured and frightening reality: Our economies are unconscionably fragile, propped up by low-wage jobs, and our health systems are tissue-thin. As companies go bankrupt and workers are laid off by the millions, it seems likely that most major economic and cultural institutions will suffer the shock of transition, if not extinction. These include the media, which has a key role to play in shaping how we think of and act upon this new world.

The US government’s first economic relief bill to cope with the coronavirus shutdown was a stopgap measure. With employment in a free fall and businesses shutting down across the country, Americans needed money in their pockets as fast as possible. Without the time to figure out the optimal policy, the government turned to an existing system that was in place and ready to go: unemployment insurance. Millions of newly unemployed Americans now use these benefits as an economic lifeline. The