With the opposition bloc failing to form a common front against the Saenuri Party, the three-way race among the ruling and two prominent opposition parties has observers baffled on the outcome of the upcoming general election Wednesday.
The Saenuri and the main opposition Minjoo Party of Korea are predicting that their rival will do better than anticipated.
The Minjoo Party of Korea supporters campaign in Seoul on Tuesday. (Yonhap)
The Minjoo Party for its part, has predicted less than 100 seats for itself, considerably less than Saenuri’s prediction of 120 for the main opposition. The Saenuri Party on the other hand is predicting that it will get 145 seats while Minjoo has put its prediction for the ruling party as high as 180.
While the modest numbers have been widely perceived as a ruse to rally support, some experts say that their predictions may be accurate.
“I don’t think they (Saenuri and the Minjoo) are pretending to be weak. The Saenuri’s prediction of 145 is realistic, and it is hard for the Minjoo Party to gain 100 parliamentary seats,” said Shin Yul, a professor of political science at Myongji University.
The recent polls by Gallup Korea revealed earlier in the month showed 37 percent support for Saenuri, 21 percent for the Minjoo and 12 percent for the People’s Party.
“Polls represent a trend. Support for Saenuri is clearly dropping, support for the Minjoo is stagnant and the People’s Party is trending up,” he said.
Despite the faltering support for Saenuri, the divided opposition bloc makes prospects grim also for the Minjoo, as votes for opposition candidates can be split. Even the Saenuri Party’s election strategy director Kweon Seong-dong, who has been projecting modest numbers for his party, admitted that the three-way race was beneficial to Saenuri.
Traditionally, prominent opposition candidates for a major election would “unify” under the common cause of beating the ruling party candidate. This would result in all but one of the candidates dropping out of the race.
This was apparent in the 2012 presidential election, when then-independent candidate Ahn Cheol-soo forfeited his candidacy in support of Moon Jae-in, his rival in the opposition bloc. Moon narrowly lost the election to President Park Geun-hye.
Four years on, the former allies have turned on each other as they battle for the votes.
The two parties have been fighting particularly for support in the North and South Jeolla provinces, traditionally a political stronghold for the opposition. With several prominent Jeolla-based opposition politicians including Chung Dong-young and Park Jie-won defecting to the People’s Party from the Minjoo Party, the minor opposition party has rapidly been gaining momentum and prominence.
“I cannot but hold former Minjoo leader Moon Jae-in responsible for the division of the Jeolla provinces and the opposition,” Park said on his Facebook page.
In the waning moments of the election campaign, Moon visited the Jeolla areas to win back Minjoo’s campaign. People’s Party’s coleader Ahn, on the other hand, concentrated his efforts in Seoul, Incheon and Gyeonggi Province.
Moon and Minjoo have been recommending “tactical voting,” in which voters support a candidate more likely to win instead of for their most-preferred candidate. Some supporters of minor opposition parties have opted for this method, voting for a candidate from the main opposition in a bid to prevent Saenuri dominance.
Korean voters pick both a candidate and a political party they support in the general election, and the parliament’s proportional representative seats are given to parties based on the percentage of the votes each of them receive.
Regardless of the results, experts warned that losing support of the Jeolla region could be fatal for the Minjoo Party.
“In Korean politics, a political party without a stronghold (in terms of voter support) cannot survive,” said professor Shin.
He took the example of former President Roh Moo-hyun’s now-defunct Uri Party, which won a majority in the 2004 general election but ultimately lost prominence due to a failure to win support from the Jeolla region. The traditionally conservative North and South Gyeongsang provinces have given over 80 percent of their votes to Saenuri candidates, while progressive Jeolla regions have given equally overwhelming support to the opposition.
“It will be a confusing time for the opposition bloc (after the elections), as the parties could go through a major overhaul,” Shin said.
By Yoon Min-sik (minsikyoon@heraldcorp.com)