How the political uncertainty caused by President Yoon Suk Yeol’s Dec. 3 martial law declaration and the opposition party’s push to remove him from power is resolved may change the course of the country’s economy.
The market is keeping a close eye on Yoon’s political future as the main opposition Democratic Party will put to a vote a second motion to impeach him on Saturday.
Yoon’s immediate removal and earlier election
Market experts believe an early presidential election following the passage of the bill to censure Yoon and the Constitutional Court’s decision to uphold impeachment would be a market-friendly scenario to steer a path through volatility.
In the event of Yoon’s removal from office, analysts expect a new president and government to pursue economic stimulus through fiscal expansion policies.
“As the impeachment phase occurred during a period of economic slowdown, there’s a possibility that fiscal spending issues may be pushed down from a priority list,” said Kang Seung-won, an analyst at NH Investment & Securities.
Uncertainty would persist for about three months until the Constitutional Court finalizes its ruling on Yoon’s impeachment, but investors would feel a sense of relief due to the predictable timeline of the procedure.
The lapse of possibilities for additional martial law declaration by Yoon and the ease of political risk would elevate the valuation of Korean stocks.
Shinhan Securities’ projection on this scenario is that the Kospi would move around 2,400 to 2,700 points.
“In past impeachment cases, the financial market responded by resolving uncertainty in the short term when the impeachment bill was passed and later showed a trend linked to the global economic cycle,” a Shinhan Securities official said.
During former President Park Geun-hye’s impeachment in 2016, the Kospi initially dropped during the height of political tension. But the process was more orderly and aligned with public demands for accountability.
For example, on Nov. 9, 2016, after Park refused to resign, the Kospi fell 3.61 percent in intraday trading. But when the National Assembly voted to impeach her on Dec. 2, the market barely moved -- investors had already priced in the likelihood of her removal.
Prolonged political impasse with impeachment failure
The lengthening of political instability draws a long shadow on the credibility of the economy and state policy banks and companies.
If investment sentiment freezes, demand for corporate bonds and publicly offered shares, the key funding channels for corporate finance, would plummet and prompt a liquidity crisis.
The faltering of state-run banks’ creditworthiness would squeeze the source of liquidity for Korean companies.
In the event of the financial markets' continuous volatility, the government may raise the size of treasury bonds, which would push the bond yield and result in a contraction of private investment and consumption.
Shinhan Securities predicted that the Kospi would stay downward, moving between 2,300 and 2,600 points if the ruling and opposition parties continue their standoff.
The Kospi is expected to experience a steep selloff equivalent to the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020 and the peak of austerity in October 2023.
As tens of thousands of people continue their protests to support the embattled president or call on him to resign, consumer sentiment is expected to slide and inevitably take a hit on worsening domestic demand.
Government-led projects are projected to lose momentum, including the Corporate Value-Up Program, the gas and oil exploration project in the East Sea, the expansion of real estate supply and arms exports.
