The Korea Herald is publishing a series of articles on major contenders in the forthcoming May 9 presidential election, using a SWOT analysis to present their strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats. Below is the second installment on Ahn Cheol-soo of the People’s Party, the runner-up rival to Moon Jae-in. -- Ed.

Ahn Cheol-soo had been better known as medical doctor-turned-entrepreneur, developer of computer virus vaccine, and celebrity mentor for the youths -- until he announced his aspiration for the 2012 presidential election.

Ever since then, his career has seen some bumps, but now at the face of an earlier-than-expected presidential race this year, Ahn is once again one of the top-tier candidates for the presidential office.

The 55-year-old politician is leading the People’s Party’s presidential nomination race, winning the party’s five regional private votes which have been held so far. Cruising toward a landslide victory in the in-party contest, scheduled to end Tuesday, he has also seen a notable rise in support ratings. 

Ahn is now the second most popular presidential hopeful, after longtime front-runner Moon Jae-in of the liberal Democratic Party of Korea.

Strength

Ahn’s most conspicuous strength is his unique centrist position, appealing to swing voters who would neither support the conservative camp after the impeachment of conservative President Park Geun-hye, nor front-runner Moon of the main liberal party.

He also has a solid political background as the founder and inaugural chief of the third-largest People’s Party, which holds 39 seats in the 300-member National Assembly. 

Along with Moon, Ahn is among the few presidential aspirants with a prepared vision for state management, having run in the 2012 election campaign as a main candidate.


Weakness

In South Korea’s polarized politics and longstanding conservative-liberal rivalry, Ahn’s “centrist” stance has been acting as a double-edged sword, winning him support from the swing voters on one hand but triggering criticism for ambiguity on the other.

Although Ahn has witnessed a notable rise in polls, recently outrunning those of Democratic runner-up figures, his support stands around half of that of front-runner Moon as of the last week of March, according to multiple local pollsters.

Another weakness of the entrepreneur-turned-lawmaker is that he has no actual experience in state governance.

As founder and former chief of computer virus vaccine developer company Ahn Lab, the politician frequently underlined his entrepreneur leadership, claiming it to be a crucial virtue for a state leader.

Yet, it nevertheless remains that he lacks experience in state administration when compared to his potential rivals. Moon served as presidential chief of staff in the former liberal Roh Moo-hyun government while conservative candidate Hong Joon-pyo is currently governor of South Gyeongsang Province.


Opportunity

Ahn’s opportunity for momentum is a possible consolidation of the conservative and centrist fields around a single candidate who has the best chance at stopping Moon.

Although uniting for a single anti-Moon candidacy would be a path fraught with peril for all parties involved, Ahn has a clear advantage in the game as recent polls show he is only 3.5-6 percentage points behind Moon in a hypothetical two-way matchup.

Since an earlier-than-planned presidential election started to take shape, Ahn has been mentioned as a plausible partner for several political groups, ranging from the minority conservative Bareun Party, independent centrist figures to runner-up candidates of the Democratic Party.

The fact that he refused to compromise and recorded a sweeping victory in the party’s regional primaries further increased his leverage among the non-Moon figures.

His other chance is that the conservative-leaning voters, finding no eligible runners in the Liberty Korea Party or the Bareun Party, may turn to the centrist Ahn as the next best solution.


Threat

But despite all potential scenarios, Ahn is still greatly outrun by Moon. And his People’s Party’s political clout is overshadowed by the conservative and liberal camps. 

According to local pollster Realmeter on Thursday, Moon kept his lead among presidential candidates for 13 consecutive weeks with 35.2 percent in approval ratings, while Ahn reached 17.4 percent. A Gallup poll, released Friday, puts Ahn at 19 percent against Moon’s 31 percent.

In the country’s unicameral parliament, Moon’s Democratic Party controls 120 of the 300 seats, followed by the main conservative Liberty Korea Party’s 93. Ahn’s People’s Party has only 39 seats. 

Although he would need support of conservative votes to stop Moon, efforts to win them could backfire among the liberal minds, as seen in the latest controversy over his remark on pardoning former President Park Geun-hye.
Some also suggest that in case the two conservative parties successfully unify their candidates, the election may turn into a conservative-vs-liberal match, thus overshadowing the centrist Ahn’s group.

By Bae Hyung-jung (tellme@heraldcorp.com)