In the aftermath of Pyongyang’s fourth nuclear test, Seoul is expected to toughen its cross-border policy this year, focusing on sanctions diplomacy and mounting across-the-board pressure on the communist state.

The foreign, defense and unification ministries set “solid diplomacy and security” and “steady unification preparation” as the theme of their joint annual New Year policy briefing for President Park Geun-hye on Friday, with the resolution of North Korea’s nuclear issue being the No.1 priority

While rallying the international community to join in pressing the Kim Jong-un regime to give up its atomic program, they pledged “omnidirectional, all-out” defense readiness posture against any additional provocations.

“With some 100 countries and international organizations having issued condemnations against North Korea’s nuclear experiment, the world is now divided as the whole international community versus North Korea,” Foreign Minister Yun Byung-se said at a news conference after the session. 

“Such diplomatic isolation, incurred by itself, is something that North Korea is afraid of most. We’re exploring various options to convey a clearer and firmer message and planning to reinforce global cooperation in that vein.”

The pressing task at hand is the forthcoming U.N. Security Council resolution over the latest underground blast, in which Seoul and Washington are seeking to include more substantial squeezes, such as on Pyongyang’s resources and arms trade, finance and marine transportation. But for Beijing, the Kim dynasty’s diplomatic and economic lifeline, the neighbor’s internal stability still seems to remain more imperative than any “fatal” punishment.

“The pivotal point is the level of China’s cooperation. … The president and I have since the nuclear test been emphasizing, with an unprecedentedly strong and clear voice, that it’s time for China to demonstrate its unacceptance of a nuclear North Korea not only with words but acts,” Yun said.

“It’s critical to show the gravity of its “zero tolerance,” not as business as usual, while pursuing UNSC or other effective sanctions.” 


Holistic approach on N.K.


With less than two years left in office, the Park administration appears to be leaning toward a hard-line approach, frustrated by its failed attempts at reconciliation and relentless provocations from across the border.

“Reestablishment” of cross-border ties had been a key feature for the Unification Ministry, but Seoul is now ready to forgo its strategies to deal separately with the atomic program and the overall inter-Korean issues and deal with them “holistically.”

The ministry, tasked with fostering cross-border ties chiefly through economic, cultural and people-to-people exchanges, unveiled plans to set up an in-house task force on the nuclear issue, though it said it would leave open the door for dialogue and continue efforts to resolve nonpolitical agendas, including on separated families and humanitarian assistance. Any future dialogue will be pursued on the foundation of trust and international standards, with denuclearization and military tension newly being added to the agenda.

“For the time being, we will concentrate on sanctions and pressure, because North Korea must face due consequences for its peace-destroying activity,” Unification Minister Hong Yong-pyo said during a separate press conference, when asked whether the ministry will not take any bilateral dialogue offer unless Pyongyang agrees to multilateral denuclearization talks.

“Even when we feel the need to talk, the dialogue must not be for the sake of dialogue. The bottom line is that it should contribute to the normal development of inter-Korean relations and peninsula peace.”

On the envisaged task force, he said: “The situation has obviously changed, and inter-Korean dialogue and exchanges will be tremendously difficult to do if the nuclear problem isn’t solved. So we’ve decided to launch the team to devise ideas and policy alternatives for our part.”

Yet this year’s policy outline failed to address fresh ideas and detailed action plans such as on how to rally lukewarm major stakeholders behind the sanctions drive. It instead centered heavily on blaming Pyongyang and simply repeated the need for strong penalties and pressure, in which Seoul has limited diplomatic leverage and policy options on its own.

The latest briefing also barely touched on plans to improve inter-Korean dialogue and civilian exchanges and help resuscitate the idle six-nation denuclearization talks.

Though Park expressed frustration with the forum’s stalemate and called for a five-way meeting that excludes North Korea, its prospects remain dim, given the stark differences in positions between the camps of Seoul, Washington and Tokyo versus Beijing and Moscow.


Beefed up miliary intelligence


On the defense front, the militaries of South Korea, the U.S. and Japan are expected to beef up their exchanges of intelligence on North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs.

The Defense Ministry introduced plans to connect its interface control center with that of the U.S., both installed at Osan air base here, through the “Link-16” system that allows real-time data sharing.

With Washington being the middleman, the three partners will likely spur their security partnerships, in particular bolstered by the recent settlement by Seoul and Tokyo on the sex slavery dispute that has long been a hurdle for greater cooperation.

The three nations clinched a trilateral intelligence-sharing arrangement in December 2014.

As part of efforts to better counter Pyongyang’s evolving threats, the South’s military will continue to flesh out the extended deterrence and “4D” defense concept -- the acronym standing for detect, defense, disrupt and destroy -- with the U.S., the ministry said. It is also forecast to expedite its project to build the Kill Chain and Korea Air and Missile Defense preemptive strike systems until the early 2020s by deploying German-made Taurus air-to-surface cruise missiles and initiating its spy satellite program this year. 



“Even after the South Korean and U.S. ICCs are linked, to relay our intelligence to Japan requires our prior consent,” a senior ministry official told reporters on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the matter.

“But it could provide an info-sharing channel for the three countries when necessary, which will help us grasp the situation in the future liftoff of a North Korean ballistic missile given Tokyo’s capabilities to identify the release and arrival points, speed and other aspects.”

(heeshin@heraldcorp.com)