There is a vigorous war of words going on between North Korea on one side and the United States and South Korea on the other, and it shows no signs of letting up. Anyone who likes trash talk should be amply entertained. But we shouldn’t ignore the actual risk all this entails.
The North Korean government threatened to hit the U.S. with nuclear armed missiles, and the U.S. had strategic bombers fly practice runs in South Korea. Pyongyang staged a mass rally with citizens urging “Death to the U.S. Imperialists,” and South Korea fired back that it would “respond strongly” to “any provocation.” On Sunday, the Obama administration sent F-22 stealth fighters to South Korea, to go with naval deployments in the area.
All this would be more worrisome if the two sides had not been through this noisy ritual so many times.
North Korea has good reason not to back up its threats with action. It does have nuclear devices, though it probably hasn’t figured out how to shrink them to fit on a rocket. There is also the stark fact, well-known to the North Koreans, that the use of nukes would mean the immediate extinction of the regime.
Though Kim Jong-un’s military has put its forces on high alert, it hasn’t dispatched thousands of troops to the border in preparation for hostilities. Nor has it made good on its threat to close a joint North Korean-South Korean industrial complex on its side of the border ― probably because it would lose badly needed hard currency.
Why bother with all this rhetoric, then? It’s most likely a ruse by the young dictator to rally his people, who otherwise might focus on the dismal state of the economy. It also serves to show those in the government and armed forces that, despite his inexperience, he’s strong enough to stand up to the world as his father and grandfather did. If war doesn’t break out, Kim can brag that he cowed the aggressors into retreat.
The Obama administration has responded appropriately, with firm statements and shows of military force designed to underscore its determination. No one in Washington has forgotten that the North’s 1950 invasion of the South came after the U.S. secretary of state delineated the American “defensive perimeter” in such a way as to exclude South Korea. The administration’s responses are also aimed at our allies South Korea and Japan, to reassure them of our unflagging commitment.
None of these are real solutions. That would require a clear way to force North Korea to give up not only its nuclear arsenal, but its brinkmanship and repression. That would require China going all-out to pressure its ally to change its ways. Unfortunately, the realistic option for Washington is to keep leaning on Beijing while looking for ways to strengthen economic and diplomatic measures against the North.
In the absence of such answers, we get military theater. But when countries start brandishing instruments of war, there is the real chance that one will miscalculate how far it can go.
The North Koreans have a history of pushing their luck, as when they sank a South Korean warship in 2010. Seoul says any recurrence would prompt retaliation, which could lead to catastrophe. “If we are lucky it will all be bluster on everyone’s side,” MIT defense expert Jim Walsh told The Guardian of Britain. “That is the good outcome. The bad outcome is that it is bluster until someone screws up and then war happens.”
The U.S. has to be clear, calm and immovable in its commitments. Firmness has kept the peace before, and with a little luck it will again.
