The bitter winter chill is gradually easing. It looks like the nation has been able to meet peak demand for electricity over the winter and avoid a greatly feared electricity crisis.
However, industry and individual households must not let their guard down. Power suppliers across the country are walking on a tightrope, and the electricity shortage has become chronic.
Almost one year has passed since the Great East Japan Earthquake. Most nuclear reactors across Japan have been left idle even after undergoing regular inspections since the crisis at the Fukushima No. 1 nuclear power plant operated by Tokyo Electric Power Co.
Just two of Japan’s 54 commercial nuclear reactors are still operating. In only about two months, all the reactors will be shut down ― this will be an emergency situation.
We urge the government to make utmost efforts to promptly reactivate nuclear reactors once they have been confirmed safe to operate.
Kansai Electric Power Co., which has shut down all the nuclear reactors under its jurisdiction, had difficulties supplying enough power to meet demand. The utility was forced to crank up its remaining power plants, including obsolete thermal power stations, to maximum output to meet winter demand.
Other electric power companies had no choice other than to depend on thermal power plants. However, malfunctions due to aging were frequently reported at such power stations. More than 10 plants across Japan had to be quickly shut down due to emergencies this winter.
The trouble at the Shin-Oita thermal power plant of Kyushu Electric Power Co. had a particularly serious impact. The utility barely managed to avoid implementing blackouts in its service area by hooking up to power supplies from five electric utilities in western Japan and Tepco.
The government projects that if summer arrives before any nuclear reactors are reactivated, the country will face an electricity shortfall of about 9 percent. The forecast said Kepco, which relies heavily on nuclear power, is facing an electricity shortage of about 20 percent for its service area. This estimate suggests Japan likely will experience a critical power shortage in a different league to the one this winter.
However, dependence on thermal power generation has its limits. In the event of a major problem at a thermal power plant, it could be impossible to prevent a blackout.
The country’s imports of liquefied natural gas, a main fuel for thermal power generation, are rapidly increasing. The volume of LNG imports marked a year-on-year increase of 12 percent last year, and import costs jumped 37 percent due to surging LNG prices.
There also is growing concern over whether Japan can ensure a stable supply of the fuel. While the country has a 200-day crude oil reserve, it has only enough LNG for two to three weeks of power generation.
The nation must make every effort to procure enough LNG through diversified sources of supply by boosting cooperation between the public and private sectors.
Greater use of such natural energy as solar and wind power is definitely desirable, but the power generation capacity of these reusable energy sources is still meager. A considerable time will be needed before natural energy utilization becomes a principal power source.
Under these circumstances, it will be essential to generate more power at new, high-performance coal- and oil-fired plants that are more environmentally friendly as they emit less greenhouse gases than earlier models.
While diversifying power sources from a medium- and long-range viewpoint, how can stable electricity supplies be guaranteed for the time being? The government must buckle down to this knotty challenge.
In late February, Economy, Trade and Industry Minister Yukio Edano said, “Given the current electricity supply-demand situation, the nation needs to have nuclear power plants restarted.” We could not agree more.
However, it seems the government is not unified in addressing with seriousness the task of restarting nuclear plants. A key to getting local governments in areas hosting nuclear plants to support their resumption lies in whether the government can responsibly assure the safety and security of nuclear power generation.
Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda must waste no time in placing himself at the vanguard of government efforts to persuade the local governments to agree to their early restart.
Because the loss of power generation by nuclear plants had to be made up for by coal- and oil-powered plants, thermal power generation accounted for the 70 percent level of Japan’s total power generation in the past year, up from the 50 percent level a year before. Fuel costs of power utilities have shot up by more than 3 trillion yen per year.
As a result of soaring power generation costs, Tepco will raise its electricity charges from April. If the dependence on thermal power generation continues, other electric utilities could very likely follow suit.
Japanese industries face a double whammy: anxieties over power shortages coupled with rising production costs.
A Yomiuri Shimbun survey revealed 70 percent of major companies believe they will be unable to pass along higher power charges through their product prices. This will inevitably have an adverse effect on their business performance.
Last summer, efforts by companies and households to cut back on electricity use played a crucial role in preventing large-scale blackouts. However, these efforts also brought other problems.
As factories changed work shifts to holidays, early mornings or nights when overall power consumption is lower, employees’ working hours became irregular in the summer of 2011, imposing considerable burdens on them.
In regions struck by the March 11 disaster, power saving dulled production activities to the extent of threatening the prospects of some recovery projects. There is no room to be overconfident in the effects of power saving.
According to a survey by the Japan Business Federation (Keidanren), 60 percent of Japanese companies said they would cut or halt domestic production should power shortages continue for two or three years. If more manufacturers shift production bases overseas, the pace of the hollowing-out of domestic industries will accelerate.
Although there are high expectations that recovery projects from the March 11 disaster will invigorate demand, the national economy as a whole has been in a lull.
The government has a heavy responsibility to prevent a power shortage from triggering an economic slump by dragging down business activities.
