Japan’s sovereign-credit rating was lowered by Moody’s Investors Service, which cited “weak” prospects for economic growth that will make it difficult for the government to rein in the world’s largest public debt burden.
Moody’s lowered the grade by one step to Aa3, with a stable outlook, it said in a statement released today. The company put the nation’s rating on review for a downgrade in May, calling on the government to step up its efforts to narrow the budget gap.
The move follows the first cut of the U.S.’s sovereign grade this month by Standard & Poor’s and comes as concern deepens on whether the euro area’s debt crisis may worsen. Japan’s public debt is projected to reach 219 percent of gross domestic product next year even before accounting for borrowing to fund reconstruction after the March 11 earthquake, according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
Japan’s government has amassed a debt of 943.8 trillion yen, according to the Finance Ministry, after two decades of fiscal spending to energize an economy hobbled by the collapse of an asset bubble in 1990 and lingering deflation that’s sapped private demand. The yen’s advance to a post World War II high this year also threatens exports, a main driver of the nation’s economic growth.
Prime Minister Naoto Kan’s efforts to reduce Japan’s debt have been stymied by opposition within his party to tax increases. Kan has also said he would step down once a second extra budget and bills for renewable energy and deficit-bond funding are passed, reducing his authority.
IMF’S Call
The International Monetary Fund said on July 19 that Japan needed to push forward with new tax measures and limit bond issuance to pare its debt. It recommended raising the sales tax to 7 percent to 8 percent in 2012 from 5 percent, then gradually increasing it to 15 percent over several years.
"Insufficient fiscal adjustment could lead to a spike in JGB yields which, even if the effects were contained, could trigger financial volatility and prove highly disruptive,” according to the IMF, referring to Japanese government bonds.
The IMF also said that outstanding government bonds could exceed total financial assets owned by households in five to 10 years barring policy changes, suggesting the government may need to rely more on foreign investors to fund its deficits.
The government has pledged to raise the sales tax to 10 percent by the middle of the decade, a rate that would still be below the IMF’s recommendations. The additional revenue is intended to pay for social welfare for the aging population.
Spending Plans
Japan's government plans total spending of 19 trillion yen over five years to rebuild after a magnitude-9 temblor and tsunami devastated the northeast coast of Japan and triggered the worst nuclear crisis since Chernobyl.
The world’s third-largest economy has shown signs of overcoming its slowdown after the quake, with industrial production rising at the fastest pace in more than 50 years in May. Companies are saying they plan to increase capital spending despite damage they incurred from a temblor that has left around 20,000 people dead or missing.
The yen’s advance against the dollar and signs of a slowdown in the global economy pose risks for Japan’s rebound after the quake. Japanese authorities intervened in the currency market for the first time since March on Aug. 4 to try to stem the yen’s gains.
<한글기사>
무디스, 日 신용등급 1단계 강등
'Aa2'→ 'Aa3'..재정적자·정부부채 증가 탓
(뉴욕·도쿄 AFP=연합뉴스) 국제신용평가사인 무디스가 23일(미국 현지시간) 일 본의 신용등급을 'Aa2'에서 'Aa3'로 한단계 강등했다.
무디스는 이날 성명을 통해 일본의 국채 등급 하향조정을 발표하면서 "2009년 글로벌 경기침체 이후 일본의 대규모 재정적자의 확대와 국가부채 증가"를 신용등급 강등의 이유로 설명했다.
무디스는 또 3월11일 일본 열도를 강타한 대지진과 쓰나미, 이로 인한 원전 사 고가 일본의 문제를 악화시켰다고 지적했다.
대지진과 쓰나미 발생 이후 주요 신용평가 회사들 가운데 일본의 신용등급을 하 향조정한 것은 이번 무디스의 조치가 처음이다.
무디스는 그러나 일본의 신용등급 전망은 '안정적'으로 평가했다.
무디스는 일본시간으로 이날 오후 3시 기자회견을 열어 일본 신용등급 강등의 배경에 대해 설명할 예정이다.
앞서 무디스는 2009년 5월 일본의 신용등급을 'Aa2'에서 'Aa3'로 상향조정했으 나 일본의 재정상황이 악화됨에 따라 올해 2월22일 신용등급을 '안정적'에서 '부정 적'으로 조정했다.
특히 5월31일에는 일본 정치권이 부채문제를 해결할 수 있을지에 의문을 표하면 서 신용등급 강등의 가능성을 시사하기도 했다.
무디스의 이번 신용등급 강등 조치에 따라 무디스의 일본 신용등급은 스탠더드 앤드 푸어스(S&P), 피치 등 여타 주요 신용평가회사들과 같은 수준으로 조정됐다.
일본의 새 총리 선출을 앞두고 무디스의 이번 신용등급 강등 조치가 발표됨에 따 라 재정적자와 정부부채의 해결이라는 이슈가 일본 정치지도자들에 상당한 압박으로 작용할 것으로 보인다.
일본 정부는 장기침체에서 탈출하기 위해 대규모 공공지출을 단행했으나 이렇다 할 성과를 거두지 못했으며 이로 인해 정부부채는 국내총생산(GDP)의 200% 수준으로 높아졌다.
여기에 일본 정부는 지진 피해 복구를 위해 국채발행을 통한 추가 재정지출을 계획하고 있어 재정상황은 더욱 악화될 것으로 우려된다.