In case of a contingency in North Korea, China is likely to resort to diplomacy rather than military intervention, which would risk its ties with Seoul and Washington, as well as its economic and strategic interests, a security expert said.

Cheong Seong-chang, a research fellow at think tank Sejong Institute, challenged the argument by many that Beijing may send troops to the North should there be the possibility of its ally falling under the influence of the U.S. or others deemed hostile.

“The claim that China’s military intervention is inevitable can be made when you look at Beijing’s current policy toward the Korean Peninsula with its Cold-War era perspective,” he said in his recent research paper.

“Should an all-out war break out with damage inflicted on its regions near the border with the North, China could militarily intervene. But we need to be careful before drawing the conclusion that it would intervene in cases other than war.”

Increasing economic interdependence and diplomatic exchanges between South Korea and China, and the U.S. and China are crucial factors to take into account to predict future action, he said, cautioning against the interpretation of Beijing’s foreign policy from outmoded ideological standpoints.

Cheong paid particular attention to the changing relationship between Beijing and Pyongyang.

Following the Sino-U.S. detente in the early 1970s and the 1992 establishment of diplomatic relations between Seoul and Beijing, the so-called “alliance forged in blood” between China and the North has turned into a friendly, cooperative relationship based on traditional friendship.

“(Unlike their relationship during the Korean War and the Cold-War period), the North and China no longer share a common adversary or threat now. Although their alliance pact has yet to be officially scrapped, it is improper to regard their ties as the alliance forged in blood,” he said.

“Following its adoption of an open-door policy and reform, China does not view the U.S. as an imperial state that it should confront any more. In this regard, there should be clear limits in the military cooperation between China and the North.”

Signs of a shift in China’s policy toward the North have recently been detected. Following the North’s April launch of a long-range rocket, Beijing agreed at the U.N. to condemn Pyongyang. It had appeared reluctant to directly criticize the North even after it launched fatal provocations against the South in 2010.

Some experts say that China might have begun recognizing that the North’s provocative behavior could undermine its long-term national interest.

Others also note that the leadership change in Beijing, where younger, more liberal and practical leaders are emerging on the political stage, could affect China’s policy on its wayward, impoverished neighbor.

Military intervention, after all, would be a risky option for China, as it would hurt its economic growth and lead to a direct confrontation with the U.S., which still has military supremacy in the region, observers say.

By Song Sang-ho (sshluck@heraldcorp.com)