Real estate is the driver of the Chinese economy. By some estimates, it accounts (directly and indirectly) for as much as 30 percent of gross domestic product. Keeping housing prices buoyant and development robust is thus an overriding imperative for China -- one that is distorting policymaking and worsening its other economic imbalances.　Despite reforms in recent years, there’s little question that Chinese real estate is in bubble territory. From June 2015 through the end of last year, the 100

The existence of a vibrant political culture and strong opposition to the political monopoly of the country’s long-term ruler were what separated Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s Turkey from Vladimir Putin’s Russia. After Erdogan’s victory in Sunday’s hotly contested presidential and parliamentary elections, however, these differences are likely to be eroded as Turkey sinks into an Islamic version of Putinism.　It wasn’t a particularly impressive victory: Erdogan won the presidential election with about 52

Since Jan. 1, when China stopped accepting the rich world’s recyclable plastic waste, it’s gotten a ton of criticism for worsening the already deep crisis of ocean plastic pollution. But China isn’t the only culprit here. This is a crisis made -- and growing worse -- throughout developing Asia.Just eight countries in the region are responsible for about 63 percent of total plastic waste flowing into the oceans. Little of that junk has been exported by rich economies. Instead, it’s almost solely

When Chilean screen actress Daniela Vega flew to Los Angeles for the Academy Awards ceremony last March, Hollywood glory wasn’t the only thing on her mind. In a matter of days, Vega would become an international celebrity for her role in the Oscar-winning “A Fantastic Woman” (best foreign picture), a fraught love story about a transgender singer and the social barriers and obscurantism she confronts. But first she had to face a little obscurantism herself.　“I have a passport with a name that has

It’s tempting to view China’s changes to the personal and corporate tax code in the context of US trade tensions. The reforms are really aimed more at Beijing’s concerns about competitiveness and economic rebalancing, and ultimately the creation of a “moderately prosperous society.”　China has many problems with tax policy. Start with the labyrinth of (mostly very high) fees and levies on individuals and corporations. According to the World Bank, China has the 12th-highest official total corporat

President Donald Trump, it is clear, presides over a regime of untruth and personally inhabits a realm of fantasy. But some of his critics have fallen prey to illusions of their own about the US and the world before Trump.　Take, for instance, Trump’s cruel disregard for the suffering of children caught up in his crackdown on immigration. It provoked many to charge him with violating “American values.” Such condemnation obscures the fact that the US was, from the late 19th century onwards, the in

One of the most fascinating moments in recent negotiations came when US President Donald Trump offered complete free trade to his European partners at the Group of Seven meetings. Trump may have viewed this as a public relations ploy, but the response was still striking: No major European political leader embraced the idea. Nor did China.　So how to make further progress on trade? Well, Trump on Monday threatened China with an extra $200 billion in tariffs, thereby moving back to bilateral pressu

Israeli security services engage in a form of profiling that rests on a basic assumption: Jewish Israelis are on Israel’s side. They are not likely to be terrorists bent on blowing up the airport, or spies working for the enemy.　This form of profiling almost always works. But it is not foolproof. In mid-June, a Jerusalem court indicted Gonen Segev on charges of “assisting the enemy in wartime and espionage.” In a statement issued on June 15, the Shin Bet, Israel’s internal security service, alle

The escalating trade battle between the U.S. and the rest of the world is raising the risk of a meaningful slowing in an otherwise vibrant American economy.While the tariffs already in place and set to be implemented will barely dent U.S. growth, economists say the panoply of additional measures being considered would take a perceptible bite out of gross domestic product if they go ahead.“It’s going to be more noticeably painful,” said Peter Hooper, chief economist at Deutsche Bank AG in New Yor

Bitcoin dropped to the lowest level this year as pressure mounts on the embryonic digital-currency sector, with global central bankers raising questions of viability and government regulators increasing scrutiny.The biggest virtual currency fell as much as 5.1 percent to $5,832.68, piercing the previous low of the year of $5,920.72 that was set on Feb. 6, according Bitstamp prices as of 10:40 a.m. in London. That bought its decline from the record high of almost $20,000 reached in December to 70

Soccer can be annoying, especially to those who watch only the big tournaments. There are too many fouls, baffling referee errors and players without a scratch on them rolling in the grass as if in unbearable pain -- and too few goals. But the 2018 World Cup has been surprisingly different (with a few exceptions). The improvement probably comes down to a single rule change: Referees now have access to video replays.　 A little more than a week into the monthlong competition, it’s too early to kno

Four of China’s leading film executives recently gathered on a Shanghai stage with a bleak message. “There are 20,000 film and television companies” in China, said Wang Changtian, president of Beijing Enlight Media. “Many aren’t making money at the moment, so why are they still here?” He predicted that thousands will go bankrupt over the next year -- a full-on bubble in movie-making, ready to pop.　It’s a classic Chinese tale. Bureaucrats in Beijing decide a favored industry must become globally

I recently noticed a string of interesting news stories, all with the same theme. Domino’s Pizza is donating money to 20 US cities, to be used for fixing potholes and cracked roads. Salesforce has donated $1.5 million to reduce homelessness in San Francisco, and its CEO, Marc Benioff, has spoken of grander schemes to end homelessness in the city entirely. And Facebook is talking about renovating a defunct bridge that runs across the San Francisco Bay near its offices.　All of these initiatives, i

On Monday, the US State Department called on Russia to release “more than 150” political and religious prisoners. In this political climate, an appeal like that from the US would usually be the best way to ensure they remain behind bars. But the State Department may have picked a good moment: President Vladimir Putin could show largesse by pardoning the prisoners while the eyes of the world are on Russia and the World Cup.　The Russian human rights group Memorial, which maintains the most complet

If you’re about to start a trade war, best ensure your citizens are in an optimistic mood.　That’s one way of looking at the US tax cuts passed in November. Stimulus from that law will boost economic growth by about three-quarters of a percentage point this year and next, Federal Reserve Gov. Lael Brainard said last month –- no doubt one reason the S&P 500 index finished just 3.8 percent below its record high on Tuesday despite the growing drumbeat on trade.　Not content with returning fire on pla

A high-profile court case about meritocracy and college admissions has captured much attention. A group called Students for Fair Admissions alleges that Harvard University uses highly subjective personality ratings to penalize Asian applicants. The former tend to outperform white applicants on every measure except for so-called personality, but the number of Asian-American students at Harvard has fallen relative to the Asian-American population, while the number for white students has risen, dur

In the first three installments of this series, I’ve explored the changing nature of China’s challenge to US interests and the existing international order, with a particular focus on three issues: China’s progressively more global military ambitions, its promotion of authoritarianism and subversion of democratic practices abroad, and its efforts to build new international institutions more responsive to its own interests.American officials have known for many years that China would eventually b

As the global number of asylum seekers continues to increase, migration is now a political lightning rod on both sides of the Atlantic. And yet politicians don’t seem interested in solving the problem so much as wielding it against opponents.　According to a new European Union report on the asylum situation, 954,000 asylum applicants were awaiting decisions in Europe at the end of 2017, 16 percent fewer than a year earlier. Fewer new applications were lodged, and more of them were rejected as the

President Donald Trump and the Democrats can’t agree on anything, except one big thing: China. After the administration announced plans on June 15 to impose tariffs on $50 billion of Chinese imports, Charles Schumer, the Democrats’ Senate leader, called the decision “on the money.”　 That was a startling statement on a startling fact: China has few friends left in Washington, on either side of the political aisle. The bipartisan vote to block Trump’s compromise on ZTE Corp. sanctions is further e

Every four years, as football fans gear up for the World Cup, researchers engage in a game of their own: trying to determine just how costly the tournament is to employers and economies. Our own contribution to this genre suggests that the calculation is a bit more complex than is generally acknowledged.　To calculate the number of productive hours at risk in this year’s tournament, we assume local office hours are between 9 a.m. and 5 p.m., and that 50 percent of each country’s workforce will be