There’s no chance China will cut its trade surplus with the US in response to President Donald Trump’s tariff threats. For starters, Washington has made no specific demand to which Beijing can respond. But its efforts may have an unexpected side effect: a debt crisis in China.　The 25 percent additional tariffs on exports of machinery and electronics looked, at first blush, like a stealth tax on offshoring. The focus on categories like semiconductors and nuclear components, in which US-owned manu

At a time when immigration and indeed the very nature of America’s heritage are being re-examined, it is worth considering the history of one of America’s greatest icons: the Statue of Liberty.　Images of the statue are so ubiquitous that it is tempting to take her for granted. But Lady Liberty, as we now call her, is quite a radical creation, both visually and conceptually. She does not carry the traditional American nationalist symbols of the flag and the eagle, instead holding the Declaration

How’s this for a thought experiment the day after President Donald Trump provoked bipartisan disgust over his performance with Russian President Vladimir Putin: Try to think charitably and ascribe rational, noncorrupt motives to political actors.　Looking at domestic politics, Trump may simply think that any acknowledgment on his part of Russian efforts to elect him discredits his presidency. Looking internationally, it would be possible to explain Trump’s behavior as an expression of a radically

It’s the go-to measure of an economy. But sometimes gross domestic product doesn’t tell you much.　A glance at China’s second-quarter GDP, released Monday, might suggest things are holding up pretty well in the world’s second-largest economy. The 6.7 percent increase from a year ago -- just barely below the prior period -- points to a China that weathered the early skirmishes of a trade war, continued its transition to a consumption-driven economy and isn’t suffering too much from a state campaig

Democracies look to voters for validation of their economic policies. For Thailand’s military junta, the affirmation is coming from Beijing, bankers and the likes of Harley-Davidson.　Harley’s decision to build a new Thai factory to supply Southeast Asia should be reassuring to Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-Ocha. The former army chief, who ousted a civilian government in a 2014 coup, has a $51 billion, five-year plan to mold the country’s eastern seaboard -- already a large manufacturing hub -- int

Capitalism has lost some of its luster in the US. The percentage of Americans aged 18 to 29 who say they support capitalism checks in at only 39 percent.　Other polls find similar results, and anecdotes seem to support the story. Meanwhile, openly socialist candidates are winning primary elections in the Democratic Party.　Why is this happening? The fading memory of the Cold War might be part of it. Young people also might simply be more idealistic than adults, and less accustomed to the business

With the election of Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador as president of Mexico, the perennial question resurfaces: Might Mexico see a higher rate of growth? Its economy has grown at a rate of about 2 percent per year for about a quarter century, about half the pace of other emerging nations. 　The sad reality is that the new Mexican regime probably cannot improve its economic performance unless it can address basic problems with education and productivity.　Mexican economic policy gets many things wrong,

The chances of defusing a US-China trade war seem bleak, so long as American complaints remain focused on China’s drive to dominate the industries of the future. The US has justified concerns about the methods China has chosen to pursue its “Made in China 2025” industrial plans. China refuses to accept any curbs on an effort seen as crucial to its future economic vitality.In fact, not only could China achieve its goals without resorting to dubious means -- arguably, that’s the only way to do so.

New tariffs on Chinese imports went into effect only on July 6, so it is too early to say how the trade war is going and which country, if any, will win it. Even the most die-hard free trader should admit that in theory it is possible that the threat of tariffs can induce other countries to make concessions that leave us (and possibly them) better off. Lose-lose scenarios are, however, also all too possible.　What we can say with certainty is that we are learning four rules for conducting a trade

When President Donald Trump meets with Russian President Vladimir Putin on July 16, some Americans will watch with apprehension: What if they hatch a plan that’ll harm US interests? What if Trump is meeting with his handler rather than his counterpart?　They shouldn’t worry. There’s little doubt that Putin can handle Trump, but not as an intelligence asset, as some conspiracy theorists suggest. Even if, as many believe, Putin “has something on Trump,” he has nothing to gain by releasing the kompr

The UK’s 2016 vote to leave the European Union represented a moment of vindication and hope for Donald Trump. No wonder he sounds worried now, as he arrives in the UK for his visit.　It’s not the protestors waiting at every stop, or even the giant orange Trump Baby balloon floating over London that’s likely to irk the thin-skinned president most. It’s the fact that a great, populist juggernaut that so closely prefigured his own rise to power is sputtering.　Trump is certainly bothered. He declared

Emmanuel Macron can’t complain about the historical figures to whom he’s been compared since his election to the Elysee Palace. From Louis XIV to Charles de Gaulle, they show how much he embodies France’s return to the global center stage after the underwhelming presidency of Francois Hollande.　But after a shining start, the golden boy of French politics has hit a rough patch. In June, he failed to achieve the meaningful reform of the eurozone that he’d advocated. His attacks on Italy’s new popu

US President Donald Trump’s strategy in his trade war with China boils down to inflicting sufficient economic pain to eventually force Beijing’s leaders into concessions the president wants -- whatever those may be. That’s the obvious purpose of the tariffs he plans to impose on another $200 billion of Chinese-made goods.　Trump may find with China, though, that there’s an inverse relationship between pressure and cooperation. Rather than bringing China’s leadership to heel, the extra duties are

In the popular imagination, dynastic wealth is a fragile thing indeed. The old adage — “from shirtsleeves to shirtsleeves in three generations” — captures the conventional wisdom: Founders of family fortunes are doomed to watch their idle children fritter away the money, leaving nothing for the grandchildren.　But how true is this? It’s a question worth asking, given the debate about growing inequality. Some $30 trillion in the US will reportedly be passed from the baby-boom generation to their h

In placing retaliatory tariffs on certain goods and products, America’s trade partners have signaled how well they understand American politics. By targeting products from areas supportive of President Donald Trump, they clearly hope to generate pressure to lift US tariffs or even create broader political problems for the president. But China is sending much more interesting — and complex — messages with its indication that it may place retaliatory tariffs on US energy exports.　Since the 1990s,

The NATO alliance is in a state of high tension heading into the Brussels summit this week.　In some ways, of course, we have been here before. When I served as NATO’s supreme allied commander from 2009 to 2013, we had controversy and disagreements aplenty over Afghanistan and Libya, for example, and endless arguments over equitable burden-sharing between the US and the other allies. Indeed, reports on the decline of NATO have been constant over the decades, especially immediately after the colla

The start of trade hostilities between the US and China accentuates an important underlying theme in China’s own economy and the way it affects the world.　A big tussle is taking place within China that the leveling of tariffs by Washington and Beijing can only aggravate. That struggle is the effort by China to slow credit significantly: Enough to squeeze the shadow banking industry and rein in debt at state-run firms, but not so much that it causes a slump in overall growth.　Getting the balance

President Donald Trump thankfully appears to have backed off his threat to block all Chinese investment in critical US technologies, looking instead to the US Congress to develop a more robust investment screening system. But the risk of this technological cold war spinning out of control, to the detriment of both countries, remains. Lawmakers must strike a balance between preserving economic openness and protecting national security, which means thinking both smaller and bigger than they seem t

German Chancellor Angela Merkel has often been called the European Union’s real leader, though she’s never wanted that role and her moves in Europe have always been dictated by German domestic politics. A different chancellor seems positioned for leadership now: Austria’s Sebastian Kurz.　Few people care much about the rotating presidency of the Council of the European Union, which Austria assumed on July 1. It’s usually just a public relations opportunity for member states that otherwise get lit

A trade war can be fought on many fronts. As China breeds unicorns, they are being asked to stay at home rather than gallop overseas to enrich US investors.　The US pipeline of Chinese initial public offerings has been light since President Donald Trump started making noises about tariffs in early March. The only billion-dollar offering is the pending sale by e-commerce site Pinduoduo, for which an American listing makes sense because it competes directly with Alibaba Group Holding Ltd and JD.com