Voters cast their ballots at a polling station in Seoul's Gangseo Ward government office on Oct. 6, the first day of the two-day early voting for the Oct. 11 by-election to select the ward's chief. The poll is of great significance to rival parties as it is considered a litmus test for the general elections in April next year. (Yonhap)
With about 100 days until April's parliamentary elections, political parties are vying to get a head start in the crucial race that observers say could determine whether President Yoon Suk Yeol will be able to push his agenda forward or end up an early lame duck.
Recent public surveys largely suggest a challenging path for the ruling People Power Party amid Yoon's low approval ratings, as shown in the party's crushing defeat in October's local by-election for Seoul's Gangseo Ward chief.
But the main opposition Democratic Party is also not in a situation to anticipate a comfortable victory in the April 10 elections amid criticism the party is basking in complacency and lacks efforts to reform itself to win voter trust.
According to a survey conducted jointly by Yonhap News Agency and Yonhap News TV earlier this month, the DP's approval rating stood at 35 percent, while that of the PPP was 34 percent.
The survey also showed that the DP and PPP would secure 36 percent and 31 percent of the vote, respectively, if the parliamentary elections were held tomorrow, though the result was within the margin of error.
Since taking office last year, Yoon has seen his agenda founder in the face of the opposition-controlled National Assembly, where the DP holds a controlling majority with 168 seats out of a total of 298. Analysts say unless the makeup is reversed, Yoon could spend the remaining three years in office as a lame duck.
Startled by the surprisingly large 17.15 percentage point defeat in October's by-election, the PPP has come up with a series of reform proposals to regain voter confidence after bringing in American Korean medical doctor Ihn Yohan as chief of its innovation committee.
Ihn, the first foreigner to pass the country's medical licensing examination and the first special naturalized citizen, has raised the eyebrows of PPP heavyweights, especially those close to Yoon, by suggesting they give up re-election bids or run in hard-to-win districts as part of efforts to freshen up the party's image.
Hopes are also high within the PPP that naming Justice Minister Han Dong-hoon as its new interim leader could move the party's image in a positive direction and further win support from the younger electorate, considered a casting vote.
"Minister Han is maintaining the top position in the public opinion poll for the next leader, and is expected to garner high expectations from the younger generation and the moderate middle class," said Rep. Yun Jae-ok, the party's floor leader.
Han, ranking the highest among potential presidential contenders in the ruling bloc, said he will strive to take the lead with "a compass called the common sense of the people and the thoughts of the people."
Yet, prospects are divided on Han, as while he is considered one of the closest confidants of President Yoon, critics nickname him as an "avatar of Yoon" for publicly speaking on various issues only on behalf of the president.
The PPP's faith is also shrouded as Lee Jun-seok, a former estranged leader of the PPP, has hinted at the possibility of creating a new party and said he could leave the party by Wednesday. Complicating the political landscape, he could also join hands with Lee Nak-yon, a former leader of the DP.
The DP, on the other hand, has been calling on voters to pass stern judgment on Yoon's mishandling of state affairs so as to keep its parliamentary majority and pave the way for retaking the presidency in the next election in 2027.
"We should stop the regression that would undo all the achievements that the Republic of Korea has built for decades," DP Chairman Lee Jae-myung said last week. "The government and the ruling party are so incompetent, irresponsible, violent and immoral that I am concerned they could completely damage the country, depending on the results of next year's general elections."
The voting result holds added importance for the DP amid mounting legal risks surrounding its party leader and potential presidential contender Lee, who has been standing trial for various corruption allegations that he has claimed were fabricated to "kill a political enemy" of the Yoon administration.
The DP, however, has faced a significant factional split between mainstream party members aligned with party leader Lee and those who are not, leading to Rep. Lee Sang-min, a five-term lawmaker, leaving the party while asserting that the DP has become Lee's personal party and hardcore pro-Lee members wield too much influence.
The party is also wary of the growing possibility of former party leader Lee Nak-yon, the erstwhile presidential primary rival of the current party leader, also quitting the party and forming a new party of his own.
He has openly raised objections to the way the party is run and demanded the leader's resignation.
Observers unanimously say it will be crucial for both parties to implement reform measures to win votes, such as even excluding unpopular sitting lawmakers from running in their districts or suggesting high-profile figures run for constituencies with no support base.
"I believe how well parties carry out reform measures and recruit new people will largely impact the result of the general elections," said a sitting lawmaker on the condition of anonymity.
The result of the election will also serve as a barometer of public sentiment toward potential presidential candidates, such as DP leader Lee, the PPP's incoming leader Han, and Land Minister Won Hee-ryon.
According to a Gallup survey released earlier this month, the support rate for DP leader Lee and Han was at 19 percent and 16 percent, respectively, with the result falling within a marginal error. (Yonhap)
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