A teacher at a high school in Yeomni-dong, Seoul gives an online class in the wake of the novel coronavirus earlier this year. The number of students per classroom has halved to about 30 or under, compared to 30 years ago, amid continuously declining fertility rates. (Yonhap)
SEJONG -- In the late 2000s, one out of every four South Koreans was under the age of 20 years old, with the population of those aged between 0-19 far surpassing 10 million.
According to the Ministry of Interior and Safety, that group made up 24.3 percent of the population in May 2008. The tally for them was 12.01 million of then-entire population, 49.38 million.
But data showed that the percentage of youth has continued to sharply decline over the past decade, posing a variety of concerns for the society involving a weakening workforce from the decrease of the working age population.
Their portion stood at 22.6 percent (11.48 million) in May 2011, 20.9 percent (10.7 million) in May 2014 and 19.1 percent (9.91 million) in May 2017.
The figure for those under 20 fell to a historic low of 17.2 percent (8.96 million) in May 2020, down 7.1 percentage points from 12 years prior and down 5.4 percentage points in less than a decade: The under-20 population decreased by 2.52 million over the past nine years.
(Graphic by Kim Sun-young/The Korea Herald)
The situation gets more critical when it comes to those younger than 15. Among 52 major countries, including 37 OECD members, Korea ranked No. 51 in the percentage of population for those aged 0-14 as of 2018. Its figure stayed at 12.9 percent.
The figure far falls short of the average in the EU (15.5 percent), OECD (17.7 percent) and the Group of 20 (21.3 percent).
South Africa topped the list, as its youth population marked 29.5 percent in 2018, trailed by Israel with 28.4 percent, India at 27.4 percent, Indonesia with 26.6 percent and Mexico, 26.5 percent.
The remaining countries in the top 10 were Colombia (25.9 percent), Argentina (24.7 percent), Saudi Arabia (24.6 percent), Turkey (23.5 percent) and Costa Rica (22.2 percent).
Among European countries, France saw its figure come to 18 percent, Sweden with 17.8 percent, Norway at 17.6 percent, the Netherlands at 16 percent, Spain with 14.8 percent, Germany with 13.5 percent and Italy with 13.3 percent.
Of other Asian nations, China posted 17.6 percent, Singapore with 14.8 percent and Japan just 12.2 percent (the lowest of the 52 countries).
Korea is likely to see lower figures than Japan in the coming years, given that the figures for Korea -- unveiled by the Ministry of Interior and Safety -- have been posting a steeper downhill gradient in recent years compared to the neighboring country. Korea’s fertility rate was under 1.0 for the fourth consecutive quarter in the first quarter of 2020.
In this situation, the nation’s working age population -- people aged between 15 and 64 -- was 37.2 million in May 2020 with the monthly figure declining both on-year and on-month basis.
According to the Ministry of Interior and Safety, the share of the population considered to be working age stood at 71.7 percent last month, compared to 72.3 percent a year earlier.
Further, this marked the lowest number in at least 12 years, since the government officially started compiling the data in January 2008. The figure for 12 years earlier (72.4 percent) was even higher than last month’s 71.7 percent.
The working age population, which peaked at 73.4 percent in January 2012, has continued to slide ever since, particularly in the past four years -- 73.1 percent in May 2016, 72.9 percent in May 2017, 72.6 percent in May 2018 and 72.3 percent in May 2019.
Statistics Korea predicted that the proportion of the population aged 15-64 will fall below 70 percent of the population, to 69.9 percent, in 2024, while some observers predict the pace could speed up.
The government-run agency also estimates that this figure will be less than 60 percent in 2036 and less than 50 percent in 2056.
The senior population is projected to overtake the working-age population, relative to the total population, in 2065, when working-age people will comprise 45.9 percent of the total and seniors 46.1 percent, according to the agency.
By Kim Yon-se (
kys@heraldcorp.com)