Hwasong 14 still short of hitting US mainland: experts

North Korea’s long-range ballistic missile test-fired last week is thought to have a range capable of reaching Alaska and Hawaii, but not the main US continent, missile experts said Wednesday.

Jang Young-geun, a professor of aerospace and mechanic engineering at Korea Aerospace University, said that if fired at a range-maximizing angle, the Hwasong 14 missile could fly 6,200 kilometers carrying a 900-kilogram nuclear warhead, or 8,100 kilometers with a 600-kilogram warhead.

“If a standardized nuclear warhead (weighing 600 kilograms) is mounted on the Hwasong 14, it can attack Alaska and Hawaii,” Jang said, based on a computerized simulation. “Although the missile has a range equivalent to an ICBM, it is not enough to reach the US mainland.”

Pyongyang is about 6,000 kilometers away from Alaska, 7,600 kilometers from Hawaii and 9,000 kilometers from San Francisco.

In the July 4 launch, the Hwasong 14 flew about 2,800 kilometers with an apogee of 933 kilometers, according to the North. Experts initially viewed that if it was fired at a range-maximizing angle, it could have flown at least 7,000 kilometers.

John Schilling, a US expert, projected the latest missile could fly up to 9,700 kilometers with a 500-kilogram nuclear warhead, putting the US naval base in San Diego under its attack range.

North Korea leader Kim Jong-un. Yonhap

But the communist regime appears to be still more than a decade away from developing an ICBM capable of carrying multiple nuclear warheads, Schilling noted, highlighting that the number of nuclear tests that the North has conducted is still fewer than other nuclear states that have acquired ICBM capabilities.

“While the North Korean missile program has been conducting tests at an accelerated pace, it has conducted only two nuclear tests in the past four years. So perhaps in 2030 we will see a multiple-warhead Hwasong-14, but probably not before then,” he said.

Jang also said that if North Korea manages to miniaturize a nuclear warhead down to 450 kilograms and fit it atop an ICBM, it could fly up to 9,000 kilometers and reach the western parts of the US mainland, such as San Francisco. 

But the expert dismissed the North’s claim that the Hwasong 14 survived intensive heat and pressure while re-entering the atmosphere, echoing the assessment of South Korea’s spy agency earlier this week that the regime has yet to master the re-entry technology.

“It’s uncertain whether the Hwasong 14 succeeded in re-entering the atmosphere, because they didn’t provide any specific data to support the claim,” Jang said. “It’s also hard to believe the missile has enough accuracy to hit strategic targets

By Yeo Jun-suk (jasonyeo@heraldcorp.com)