N. Korea likely to test ICBM ahead of late leader's birthday in mid-Feb.: expert

North Korea is likely to test-fire an intercontinental ballistic missile to mark late leader Kim Jong-il's birthday on Feb. 16, a researcher on North Korean affairs said Wednesday.

"Given the North Korean regime's remarks and conditions of its technical preparedness, the North is highly likely to go ahead with an ICBM test firing ahead of the 75th anniversary of Kim Jong-il's birth on Feb. 16," Cheong Seong-chang, a senior researcher at the Sejong Institute, said in a forum hosted by the institute. 

The North Korean test, if conducted as predicted, may aggravate tension between the US and the North as well as China's conflicts with the US and South Korea because the test would expedite a Seoul-Washington plan to deploy a Terminal-High Altitude Area Defense system in the South, he noted.

A propaganda painting of the late Kim Il-sung and Kim Jong-il (Yonhap)

In response to the potential ICBM test, the Donald Trump administration in the US is expected to exert tougher pressure on the North and China by adopting a so-called secondary boycott, Cheong said, referring to secondary sanctions designed to punish Chinese firms carrying out business with the North.

"It is highly likely that (they) would push ahead with a launch although it may ultimately depend on how the Trump administration reacts, China's pressure or internal political conditions of South Korea," according to the senior researcher. "In case of a nuclear test, the North has always went ahead with them even though they sometimes got delayed."  

After advancing its nuclear and missile capabilities through additional tests, the North could reverse course and opt for an engagement policy with South Korea, Cheong also predicted. "If a new government is launched in South Korea, Pyongyang may move on to stress mending ties between the countries and carry out a peace offensive." (Yonhap)