Unlike mixed evaluations abroad, U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon is held in high esteem in his native country. In last year’s survey conducted by the Daily UNN, a specialized newspaper for university students and faculty members, he was picked as the most respected Korean by college students.
The former Korean foreign minister, who was reelected to the top U.N. post in 2011, will finish his two terms at the world body at the end of this year. And public attention is being paid to his future course of action following his retirement.
Ban has neither confirmed nor denied speculation about his presidential ambitions. But his high-profile moves during his recent visit to Korea lend credence to reports that he may run in the presidential election slated for December next year.
During his five-day visit, Ban met senior politicians and journalists, former prime ministers and foreign ministers. Above all, his visit to Hahoe Folk Village in Andong, North Gyeongsang Province, and meeting with veteran politician and power broker Kim Jong-pil reportedly had many political connotations in regard to his presidential bid.
There are many questions that remain to be answered. Will the 71-year-old veteran diplomat really bid for the Korean presidency, which has been enjoyed mainly by Army generals and political patriarchs? If so, will he run on the ticket of the ruling party or an opposition party? How high is his chance of winning?
When I was a reporter covering foreign affairs between 2000 and 2001, I happened to meet Ban when he was vice foreign minister. As far as I know, he is a man of consideration, carefulness and balanced views and attitude, all suitable qualifications as a diplomat.
Before making a final decision, he is likely to closely watch public opinion polls on presidential hopefuls. Two recent surveys put Ban as the front-runner, with 31.6 percent and 25.3 percent support, respectively, followed by opposition leaders Moon Jae-in and Ahn Cheol-soo.
Another factor that will affect his determination will be the security situation on the Korean Peninsula in the second half of this year, which is expected to be volatile due to North Korea’s nuclear threats and the U.S. presidential election.
Donald Trump’s win in the Republican primary will surely add to diplomatic tensions between Seoul and Washington over the costs of stationing U.S. troops in South Korea and renegotiations over the bilateral free trade agreement. His willingness to agree on nuclear armament by Seoul and Tokyo against possible provocations by North Korea may throw Asia into a nuclear arms race. In this case, our voters may back a candidate with a diplomatic background.
If he opts to run, Ban is expected to seek the ruling Saenuri Party’s ticket, rather than join the opposition camp.
Chances are that he will contest the ruling party’s primary for nomination with the backing of the party’s powerful faction of President Park Geun-hye’s lieutenants, who do not have a robust standard-bearer.
It wouldn’t be an exaggeration to assume that Ban’s visit to the Hahoe Folk Village could have been politically motivated.
Ban, a native of North Chungcheong Province, met community leaders in Andong, the largest city in North Gyeongsang Province. The province and neighboring Daegu form the cradle of the political power group dubbed the “TK faction,” which produced President Park as well as former presidents including her father Park Chung-hee, Chun Doo-hwan and Roh Tae-woo.
Ban’s relatively moderate and conservative political inclination and other factions’ less hostile stance toward him would boost his chances of winning the ruling party’s ticket.
In the party’s primary process, Ban, who has no political background in the nation long marked by regional favoritism and factionalism, may designate a running mate among political heavyweights for power sharing.
As a ruling party lawmaker has proposed, Ban is highly likely to announce that his political power partner would control home affairs while he would exclusively deal with foreign affairs.
This can be a preliminary step to introducing a parliamentary cabinet system or the dual executive government system, in which the prime minister rules the nation while the president remains a ceremonial head of state, to replace the current presidential government system.
The prospects of this scenario gained traction when Ban visited Kim Jong-pil, a nonagenarian political patriarch who had dominated the nation’s central Chungcheong region. Known as a power broker for several decades, Kim is a staunch supporter of the cabinet system.
If Ban decides to run for presidency on the ruling party’s ticket, his chances of winning look high, as long as political regionalism -- voters’ heavy tendency to supporting candidates and a political party from their region -- plays a key role in the election.
Arithmetically, a candidate from Yeongnam, the nation’s southeastern area encompassing Busan, Daegu, Ulsan and South and North Gyeongsang provinces, is in a better position to win against a rival contender from Honam, the southwestern region including Gwangju and South and North Jeolla provinces.
In the 2012 presidential poll, Yeongnam voters accounted for 26.1 percent of Korea’s 40.52 million eligible voters, while Honam and Chungcheong were 10.3 percent and 9.9 percent, respectively. A near majority voters live in Seoul, Incheon and Gyeonggi Province, but their provincial bias is weak.
But Ban’s possible alliance with the ruling party may face headwinds that it would deepen regionalism, the legacy of old-fashioned politics.
Regardless of whether he becomes a ruling or opposition presidential candidate, Ban should pronounce that he would become a leader dedicated to ending inter-Korean conflicts and uniting the people divided by regionalism, income and different political ideologies.
By Shin Yong-bae
Shin Yong-bae is the business editor of The Korea Herald. He can be reached at
shinyb@heraldcorp.com. — Ed.