Published : Feb. 16, 2016 - 17:29
Since the late 2000s, news coming out of Europe has been negative.
The financial crisis of 2008 hit Europe hard. Concerns over high debt levels in Greece, Ireland, Portugal, and Spain raised speculation that Greece might be forced to leave the euro. Fiscal austerity measures devastated these already weakened economies and nearly caused the collapse of the Greek economy. Terrorist attacks in Paris and a wave of refugees from Syria stoked fears of a nationalist backlash against immigrants. A referendum on EU membership in the U.K. has raised the prospect of a breakup of the community.
This wave of bad news contrasts with the good news 20 years earlier that produced a short-lived era of “Europhoria.”
The collapse of communism in Eastern Europe, German reunification, and the collapse of the Soviet Union ended the Cold War division of Europe. European integration became a reality with the Treaty of Maastricht in 1992. During the 1990s, European nations prepared to adopt the euro, a new common currency that was launched in 1999. Meanwhile, economic growth during the decade was strong, particularly in peripheral countries, such as Ireland and Poland.
The present and recent past of Europe underscore the frequently ignored fact that change is a constant, and that what is up today will go down tomorrow. More importantly, it raises the question of how political and economic stress affects cooperation among nations.
The EU was born in the aftermath of World War II as France, Germany, Italy, and the Low Countries formed a common market to help rebuilt their economies and strengthen cooperation, which began the long process of European integration. The driving argument behind the process was that deeper integration was key to preventing another devastating war. The goal was to create a supranational organization to bring nations together while respecting the traditions and sovereignty of the member states.
This deeply idealistic goal of a united but diverse Europe at peace with itself and the world developed during the boom years that, except for a slowdown in the 1970s, lasted for 50 years. Aging populations and weakness in the global economy beginning in the 2000s brought this to an end, which made nations more inward looking as they searched for solutions to immediate problems.
North America, Japan, and other parts of the world have also entered a difficult period of new threats and dashed hopes that have caused them to assert national interest over international cooperation.
Taken together, the trend is clear: international cooperation grows when times are good and withers when times are bad. In good times, nations, which remain the defining unit in international affairs, have the confidence to reach out to other nations and look for areas of cooperation. In bad times, nations look inward and begin to compete with each other for what they perceive as dwindling opportunities and resources. The competition causes stress, which slowly erodes trust that starts a vicious circle of conflict that can lead toward war.
European history in the first half of the 20th century provides further confirmation of this pattern. Increasingly tense relations between major powers created alliances that stumbled into a war that ended in a tense peace. Some nations recovered, but German economy remained weak. As the Great Depression spread around the world, economic weakness became the norm, and nations turned inward. Fascism and militarism took root in Germany and Italy, triggering a vicious circle that climaxed with the outbreak of World War II.
But what does this have to do with Korea? Economically, the EU is the second-largest market for Korean exports and Korea’s ninth-largest trading partner. Korea has close economic and diplomatic relations with many EU nations, many of which fought in the Korean War. The economy of the EU is largest in the world and the euro is the second-largest reserve currency in the world. The health of the EU economy influences the health of the Korean economy. A collapse of the EU and the euro would be a traumatic event that would shock the world economy.
At a deeper level, the problems facing the EU are a reminder of the fragility of international cooperation. This is particularly important for Korea as it tries to build regional cooperation on how to deal with North Korea. As China, Japan, Russia, and the United States -- all of which are dealing with economic uncertainty --- assert narrow self-interest, Korea may find cooperation increasingly difficult. This suggests that Korea may have to go at it alone until the good times return.
By Robert J. Fouser
Robert J. Fouser, a former associate professor of Korean language education at Seoul National University, writes on Korea from Ann Arbor, Michigan. — Ed.