주요업체 25곳 만장일치…"최종 결과는 1-0 한국 승리가 유력"
월요일 새벽 펼쳐질 한국과 알제리 경기를 앞두고, 유럽의 냉철한 도박사들은 모두 한국이 알제리를 꺾을 것으로 예상했다.
연합뉴스 보도에 따르면 21일(한국시간) 현재 영국의 베팅 정보사이트 '오즈체커'의 집계 결과 베팅을 개설한 25개 업체가 모두 한국의 승리를 점쳤다는 것이다.
각 업체가 한국의 승리에 책정한 배당률은 1.25∼1.65로 알제리의 승리 배당률 2.1∼2.4, 무승부 배당률 2.1∼2.4보다 한결같이 낮은 것으로 알려졌다. 가장 유명한 베팅업체인 '윌리엄힐'은 한국의 승리에 1.3, 알제리의 승리에 2.3 , 무승부에 2.1의 배당률을 제시했다.
배당률 1.25는 100유로를 걸고 결과를 알아맞히면 원금을 포함해 125유로를 받는다는 것을 의미한다.
베팅 업체들은 돈을 벌려고 종목을 개설하는 까닭에 실현 가능성이 클수록 배당 률을 낮춰잡을 수밖에 없다.
업체의 도박사(오즈메이커)들은 국가의 전반적 전력, 조별리그에서 처한 상황, 선수들의 몸 상태, 사기 등을 따져 배당률을 책정한다.
돈이 오가는 냉정한 사업이기 때문에 유럽 도박사들의 배당률은 승부를 예상할 때 대체로 신뢰할 수 있는 지표로 주목된다.
한국의 승리, 알제리의 승리, 무승부의 배당률이 1.25부터 2.4로 크게 차이가 나지 않는다는 사실에서는 호각세 가능성을 읽을 수 있다.
이런 분위기를 반영하듯 실제로 베팅 참여자의 41.82％가 한국의 승리, 41.21％가 알제리의 승리, 16.97％가 무승부에 돈을 걸었다.
최종 결과를 맞히는 항목에서는 한국의 1-0 승리가 가장 낮은 배당률을 기록했 고 1-1 무승부, 알제리의 1-0 승리 등이 뒤를 이었다.
윌리엄힐은 한국의 1-0 승리, 1-1 무승부에 가장 낮은 배당률 5.5, 알제리의 1-0 승리, 0-0에 다음으로 낮은 배당률 7.0을 제시했다.
첫 골을 터뜨릴 선수를 고르는 항목에서는 한국의 최전방 공격수 박주영의 배당 률이 19개 업체에서 가장 낮게 책정됐다.
이슬람 슬리마니(알제리), 손흥민, 이근호 등이 다음으로 첫 골 가능성이 큰 선수로 주목됐다.
오즈메이커들은 핵심 선수의 부상이나 컨디션의 변화 등 각종 악재나 호재를 고 려해 수시로 배당률을 조정한다.
특정 항목에 베팅이 쏠려 업체가 수익을 낼 수 없는 상황에도 배당률 조정이 이 뤄지기도 한다.
국내에서 이들 업체의 베팅에 참여하면 현행법 위반으로 처벌을 받을 수 있다. (khnews@heraldcorp.com/Yonhap)
All eyes on Korean team's penetration into Algeria's defense
PORTO ALEGRE, Brazil ― Korea’s World Cup squad heads into its match against Algeria on Sunday with all eyes on whether it will be able to penetrate Algeria’s labyrinthine defense.
Korea was able to shake off two scoreless pre-World Cup defeats in a promising display in its 1-1 draw with Russia on Tuesday with improved positioning and passing, especially in its back line. But the opening match exposed the team’s lack of endurance and creativity.
The Korean side made just six shots on goal throughout the match, as the cautious front line opted for safety in the first half rather than pushing up the attack.
They were more aggressive in the second half, but began to tire. The energetic second-half substitute Lee Keun-ho finally broke the stalemate in the 68th minute, but not without help from error-prone goalkeeper Igor Akinfeev, who let Lee’s long-range shot slip through his hands.
Korea showed that it still had work to do defensively, as substitute Aleksandr Kerzhakov scrambled home an equalizer in the 74th minute.
Russian coach Fabio Capello noted that Korea was strong in possession and movement, but seemed to tire near the end. A few players succumbed to cramps in the second half, including captain Koo Ja-cheol and defender Hong Jeong-ho, who has been recovering from a bruised ankle and eventually left the field on a stretcher.
Algeria, in pursuit of its first World Cup win since 1982, showed that it was no pushover against the much-favored Belgium. After a first-half penalty conversion by Sofiane Feghouli, the team held on to its lead with all-out defense for most of the game. But it was ultimately broken down by second-half substitute midfielders Marouane Fellaini and Dries Mertens for a 2-1 defeat.
Under coach Vahid Halilhodzic, Algeria focuses on preventing openings for attackers. But like Korea, Algeria also struggles with endurance. Facing an airtight defense, Belgium adopted the strategy of wearing out the Algerian team before bringing on strong substitutes to secure the win.
Striker Ji Dong-won said Wednesday he thought attacking down the flanks might prove effective against Algeria.
“I watched the game between Algeria and Belgium. Algeria’s offensive players are fast and each one of them has their own talent. I don’t think Algeria is an easy target,” said Ji, who watched Korea’s opener from the bench Tuesday. “If we play the game (against Algeria) like we did with Russia, then our chances are good.”
Both teams will be seeking to win ahead of tough final group matches on June 26. Korea faces Belgium, which is expected to remain at the top of the group standings, while Algeria again faces a side led by Fabio Capello. The Russia coach led England to a draw against the African team in the 2010 World Cup.
At the bottom of a group that sees Belgium leading with three points and South Korea and Russia each with one, Algeria’s hopes of moving past group stages in its fourth-ever World Cup will end, if it loses.
Koo said the team would focus on getting into shape for Sunday’s game.
“We have to defeat them to get to the Round of 16,” he said Wednesday. “We’ll concentrate on doing whatever it takes to win.”
Korea returned Wednesday to its Foz do Iguacu camp to prepare for the Algeria game and was due to arrive Friday evening in Porto Alegre, where the weather is expected to be a cloudy 20 degrees Celsius on match day.
Belgium and Russia, both returning to the World Cup for the first time since 2002, are preparing for a rematch in Rio de Janeiro after their faceoff that year saw Belgium win 3-2.
By Elaine Ramirez, Korea Herald correspondent
(elaine@heraldcorp.com)
Grace Cho in Seoul contributed to this article. ―Ed.
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