Published : Feb. 3, 2014 - 19:38
The wheel of a Caterpillar Inc. DBT crawler tractor is pictured in Lexington, Kentucky. (Bloomberg)
Global corporate earnings growth is poised to accelerate this year as higher spending by U.S. consumers and Europe’s gradual rebound from a two-year recession help offset a slower economic expansion in China.
3M Corp., which sells consumer, health-care, industrial and safety products around the world, said sales growth may double in the U.S. and demand is improving in Western Europe. Company earnings in Japan may rise about 9 percent in the next fiscal year as the weaker yen aids exporters such as Toyota Motor Corp., according to estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Even French carmaker Renault SA is projected to reverse a three-year slide in earnings this year as European car sales rebound.
“What we’ve got going on for the first time in this recovery is truly global synchronized growth,” said James Paulsen, the Minneapolis-based chief investment strategist at Wells Capital Management, which manages about $340 billion in assets. “It’s still slow by long-ago historic standards, but it will feel pretty good in this recovery.”
Growth for the U.S. and Europe at the same time, even if moderate, is a welcome change for company earnings, Paulsen said. The U.S. economy is projected to expand 2.8 percent, matching 2012 as the fastest pace since 2005, while the euro area is on track for its first annual growth since 2011. Although American retailers have been hurt as lower income families rein in expenses, carmakers are projected to sell more than 16 million cars in the U.S. for the first time since 2007.
European car sales are “going to get better for the first time after five years of a strong decline,” said Carlos Ghosn, chief executive officer of Renault, in an interview in Davos, Switzerland, last month. “We’re going to get back slowly to growth, moderate growth, 1 to 3 percent for the years to come.”
Earnings for companies in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index are forecast to rise 8.5 percent in 2014 from 5.2 percent last year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. About 79 percent of companies that have reported results for the fourth quarter have topped estimates, signaling that corporate profits were already gaining momentum at the end of 2013.
While 59 percent of companies in the Stoxx Europe 600 Index have posted earnings that trailed estimates for the fourth quarter, analysts are still forecasting profits for 2014 will increase about 13 percent. That would be a turnaround from a 5.6 percent decline in 2013.
“Of the big economies of the world, the U.S. at the moment is the healthiest,” said Bob Doll, chief equity strategist at Nuveen Asset Management in Chicago, which oversees $118 billion, including $8 billion in equities. “Earnings are going to be driven by U.S. growth and further recovery in Europe.” (Bloomberg)