Bank of Japan struggles to convince on 2%

A pedestrian walks past the Bank of Japan headquarters in Tokyo. (Bloomberg)

Half a year after Bank of Japan Gov. Haruhiko Kuroda unleashed record monetary easing, economists see the bank failing to meet its inflation target, underscoring the case for stronger steps to revive the economy.

While the median estimate of BOJ board members released last week showed the bank expects consumer prices to rise 1.9 percent in the 2015 fiscal year ― in line with a 2-percent-in-two-years goal laid out in April ― just two of 34 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News see the target met in that timeframe.

With the central bank seen standing pat on the pace of asset purchases until it can assess the impact of an April 2014 sales-tax bump, the onus is now on the government to sustain confidence in the Abenomics project. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has yet to introduce legislation such as corporate-tax cuts that companies have advocated to boost Japan’s potential.

“Progress on the growth strategy has been slow,” said Yuichi Kodama, chief economist at Meiji Yasuda Life Insurance Co. in Tokyo. “If the delays continue, foreign investors could lose confidence in Abenomics, and stocks could fall.”

Japan’s benchmark Topix index of stocks ― still the best performer among 24 developed markets this year in the aftermath of Kuroda’s easing and a tumble in the yen that made exporters more competitive ― trailed counterparts last month, signaling waning enthusiasm with Abenomics. The Topix advanced less than 0.1 percent, the worst among the group tracked by Bloomberg.

Fifteen of the economists surveyed said the lack of bolder steps on the growth strategy is undermining the central bank’s reflation campaign.

Growth slowed to an annualized 2.1 percent in the three months through September from 3.8 percent the prior quarter, Nomura Securities Co. estimated. BNP Paribas SA said the expansion likely slumped to 1.7 percent.

Abe said the current extraordinary Diet session would be one for “getting things done,” reflecting a focus on pushing through legislation for his growth strategy ― the “third arrow” of his Abenomics project. On the table are steps to encourage corporate restructuring to boost industrial competitiveness and the introduction of zones for deregulation in fields from medical treatment to urban development. (Bloomberg)