Published : Sept. 11, 2013 - 20:46
China’s broadest measure of new credit almost doubled in August from the previous month in a sign leaders are committed to meeting economic goals even at the cost of adding financial risks.
Aggregate financing was 1.57 trillion yuan ($257 billion), the People’s Bank of China said in Beijing Tuesday, topping the 950 billion yuan median estimate of 10 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News. New yuan loans from banks accounted for about 45 percent of the total, down from July’s 87 percent, as non-traditional credit played a bigger role.
Shoppers and pedestrians walk past a Chinese national flag displayed outside a department store in Beijing. (Bloomberg)
The first pickup in credit growth after an unprecedented four straight declines, the fastest gain in industrial output in 17 months and above-forecast exports signal better odds that Premier Li Keqiang will achieve his 7.5 percent expansion target this year. The data also mark a resurgence in shadow banking that poses risks for the financial system after a record credit boom in the first quarter.
“If credit growth picks up persistently from here, China’s current growth recovery may well last a bit longer and go a bit further,” said Yao Wei, China economist at Societe Generale in Hong Kong. “However, that only adds to the downside risk afterwards, as the leverage of Chinese corporates and local governments keeps rising from the already alarmingly high level.”
M2 money supply growth accelerated to 14.7 percent, the fastest in three months.
China’s lending spree in recent years has evoked comparisons to debt surges that tipped Asian nations into crisis in the late 1990s and preceded Japan’s lost decades. China’s ratio of credit to gross domestic product rose to 187 percent in 2012 from 105 percent in 2000, compared with Japan’s increase to 176 percent in 1990 from 127 percent in 1980, JPMorgan Chase & Co. said in a July report.
UBS AG has estimated the size of China’s shadow banking, including private lending, banks’ off-balance-sheet vehicles and trusts, at $3.35 trillion. (Bloomberg)