“한국 경제, 우려와 달리 선전하고 있다”

작년에 이어 올해도 경제 성장에 대한 부정적인 전망이 만연하지만, 21세기경제연구소 대표이자 “대통령을 위한 경제학”의 저자인 최용식 소장은 긍정의 경제학이 필요하다고 주장다.

최용식 소장

“경제에서의 비관론은 자기실현성이 있는 법이라서 정부나 기관에서 소극적인 예측을 내놓으면 현실도 그대로 따라가게 되어있다,” 라고 최소장은 말했다.

“부정적인 기류 속에서 어느 기업이나 소비자가 투자와 소비를 하겠는가.”

또한 정계나 언론에서는 가계부채나 고용률 등을 들면서 한국 경제가 위기 상황인 것으로 묘사하곤 하는데 이는 왜곡된 인식이라고도 전했다.

“중요한 것은 가계부채의 금액이 아니라 가계자산의 총액, 그리고 상환 능력이다.”

노무현 전 대통령의 경제 분야 멘토로 알려진 그는 차기 박근혜 정부의 경제 정책들에 대해서도 우려를 표했다. 특히 핵심 과제인 재벌 규제는 경제민주화가 아닌 공정 거래의 시각에서 접근해야 함을 강조했다.

“복지, 소위 분배의 선순환이 그 자체로 목적이 되어서는 안 된다. 분배는 반드시 성장을 전제로 해야 한다.”

Korea’s economy is doing well, despite skepticism

By Bae Hyun-jung

Overall outlooks on the nation’s economy for this year are negative as the Bank of Korea predicted lower growth and local industries are concerned about a protracted business slowdown.

It is, however, such pessimism that discourages and aggravates the economy, not the other way around, according to an economist.

“Negativism in economics has a self-fulfilling power,” said Choi Yong-sik, chief of the Turning Age Economic Research Institute, in an interview with The Korea Herald.

“Our country’s economic achievement last year and prospects for this year are altogether quite optimistic, contrary to the prevalent belief.”

Choi acted as an economic adviser to former President Roh Moo-hyun during the transition period and in the early stages of the administration in 2003.

He is also author of “Economics for the President,” a book in which he offers his analysis of Korea’s economy and suggestions for the incoming Park Geun-hye administration’s economic policies.

“Many feel threatened by the high level of household debt, which rose as a key issue during last year’s presidential election season,” the economist said.

But this sense of crisis is largely exaggerated, as the average level of household assets greatly exceeds that of loan debts, he explained.

“By tightening regulations on household loans, the government may ironically impose a ceiling on a growing economy, instead of boosting it,” Choi said.

He added that the negative assessment by the government and financial organizations will create a vicious cycle.

“Companies, when intimidated by pessimistic predictions, usually refrain from new investments, which then leads to stagnancy in consumption,” he said.

The Bank of Korea recently lowered its growth projection for this year from 3.2 percent to 2.8 percent.

Despite his optimistic theories on the current economic situation, Choi also expressed concerns over the incoming administration’s policy directions.

“Welfare has risen as one of the top buzz words, not only in the election campaigns but in the next government’s policy guidelines,” he said.

This may be disillusioning, however, as distribution of benefits may never precede economic growth itself, he said.

The economist also criticized the idea of economic democratization, a comprehensive economic slogan put forth by the incoming president.

“If the government were to ‘democratize’ the economy, it should then offer a fair chance to all economic subjects, including conglomerates,” he said.

The conglomerates’ monopoly should instead be approached in terms of fair trade processes, he added.

“President-elect Park pledged to stick to her pledges, including economic democratization, but as the next president, she should now look beyond the election campaign slogans.”

(tellme@heraldcorp.com)