Published : Oct. 24, 2012 - 19:51
South Korea is experimenting with e-democracy in the Dec. 19 presidential election. The “person to watch” in this test is Ahn Cheol-soo, 50, a medical doctor-turned antivirus software guru.
Though the popularity rating can be dicey, the independent presidential candidate Ahn is leading or running neck-and-neck in a two-way or three-way matchup in most polls against the candidate of the ruling Saenuri Party, Park Geun-hye, 60, and that of the main opposition Democratic United Party, Moon Jae-in, 59.
Without political experience, party or formal organization, Ahn’s popularity is riveting. What does the Ahn phenomenon mean? Does it reflect the Korean mass public’s widespread discontent with the existing two major political parties or their deep-felt need for a new political paradigm for governance in the age of Homo electronicus? Whatever it signifies, it clearly poses a serious challenge to the existing party systems and representative democracy in South Korea and beyond.
Meanwhile, in its open party primary, the DUP adopted an unprecedented voting procedure. The surprising result was that 95 percent of its total vote came from electronically registered cell phone voters, and the rest from the party members and delegates to 13 nomination conventions in the nine provinces and seven major cities, including Seoul. Moon, a human rights lawyer and the former chief-of-staff to late President Roh Mu-hyun, won the DUP candidacy by garnering 56.5 percent of overall votes, a huge chunk coming from mobile phone voters.
A last-minute “political act” before the official presidential candidate registration deadline, Nov. 25-26, may unfold. Moon and Ahn could reach a compromise to field a united candidacy to run against Park.
Five factors stand out in this year’s presidential election.
First, chronic regional issues are far less relevant in this election. For decades, Yongnam and Honam regional antagonism has plagued South Korean politics. For the first time, all three candidates are from Yongnam. Park hails from Daegu, and Moon and Ahn are from Busan. Moon’s late parents, though, were refugees from North Korea during the Korean War and Ahn’s wife is from Honam.
Second, Confucian tradition aside, as the election campaign heats up, the gender issue may surface. Park, who has never married, is the first serious female presidential contender in Korea. Of 20-plus incumbent and past female presidents or prime ministers around the world, all have been or are married. Her choice of Elizabeth I, the 16th-century queen of England, as her role model is understandable. If she wins, she will become the first single female head of state by a direct popular vote in the presidential democracy in the world.
Third, while Moon and Ahn are relatively free of political pasts, Park, as a daughter of former President Park Chung-hee, carries her father’s political legacy. Harsh repression of dissidents and political opposition under her father’s regime notwithstanding, few dispute his contributions to the nation’s rapid economic development and industrialization. In a nutshell, she cannot be politically where she is today without her father.
Under pressure, she formally apologized last month for her father’s extra-constitutional rule for 18 years. She regretted his seizure of power by military coup in May 1961, his “rule for life” by pushing through the Yushin Constitution in 1972 and the execution of eight anti-dictatorship activists by concocting the court trial in the 1974 Inhyeokdang Incident. Whether or not her apology is good enough to remove her father’s “ghost” from her back will be decided by the voters in December.
Fourth, domestic and foreign policy platforms of all three candidates are already showing some ill effects of power-seekers. Their domestic policy reveals a populist tendency. When they advocate expanding welfare programs, for example, in the name of “economic justice,” the voters are hard pressed to decide who is opportunistic. Without proper deliberation of time constraints, fiscal feasibility, legislative and administrative gridlocks, and fickle public opinion, their overblown campaign promises are worrisome.
Likewise, they espouse engagement toward North Korea in reaction to the current government’s failed hard-line policy. The past party track records, however, indicate that Moon’s liberal DUP’s domestic policy and North Korean agenda are more credible and consistent than those of Park’s conservative Saenuri Party.
In foreign policy agenda, the three candidates have not yet voiced their policy position and/or direction on such vital issues as territorial disputes between China and Japan over off-shore islet chains and new strategic dynamics of the rising China and rebalancing U.S., Korea’s only formal defense ally and key free trade agreement partner.
Finally, no independent candidate has ever won the presidency in South Korea. All came in distant third and played the spoilers’ role. But the Ahn candidacy differs from them in one critical respect: He has a fairly solid and steady nationwide following, mostly of information technology-friendly young and middle-aged urban professionals.
So, the Ahn phenomenon raises a set of crucial questions. Is he a political trailblazer in the digital age? Is the role of political parties becoming passe? Is direct democracy of ancient Greek city-states being revived in South Korea, a mid-sized country of 50 million, through electronic electoral devices? Or, is it merely a “sterile” excitation in the Korean political scene?
One thing seems certain. Whether Ahn wins, loses or drops out of the race at the last minute, his candidacy will be the first serious litmus test for e-democracy in Korea, if not in the world.
In the end, however, all power-seekers and power-holders should beware of Max Weber’s admonition with the proviso that age is not chronological: “The devil is old ― grow old to understand him!”
By Yang Sung-chul
Dr. Yang Sung-chul is a former ambassador of the Republic of Korea to the United States and the author of “The North and South Korean Political Systems: A Comparative Analysis.” ― Ed.