The following are quotes from experts who contributed to the series on the changing Asia-Pacific security situation — Ed.
Nam Chang-hee
Nam Chang-hee, Inha University“Now, China is a status-quo power. But as it gets stronger militarily and economically, China could become a revisionist and try to challenge the regional order. To prevent this situation, South Korea, the U.S. and Japan can form a strong network to persuade China to remain as a status-quo power and become a responsible regional stakeholder. It is different from a triangular alliance to counter or contain China.”
Kim Tae-hyun
Kim Tae-hyun, Chung-Ang University
“We have to capitalize on multilateral institutions such as the East Asia Summit and other consultative bodies where countries in the region openly express their opinion or grievances so that we can limit China’s increasing assertiveness. We can show to Beijing on the public stage that their aggressive moves are not in their best interests. We should make diplomatic efforts so that we don’t have to face any hard choices.”
Chun In-young
Chun In-young, Seoul National University
“We are now in a very delicate position where we face hard choices. We need to draw up a strategic vision to more sophisticatedly deal with the current situation while policymakers should remain cautious not to strain ties with any of them. We should not antagonize any of them, but try to seek understanding from both for better relations. On top of that, we need wise policymakers.”
Kwon Tae-young
Kwon Tae-young, Korea Research Institute for Strategy
“For the South, a stronger alliance could serve to better deter North Korea while the U.S. could think of the alliance from a broader strategic perspective to help keep China in check. During a decade of costly warfare in Afghanistan and Iraq, America’s economy deteriorated while China has risen. As they were mired in quagmires during this war, they now try not to deploy their ground troops for a long period.”
Lee Dae-woo
Lee Dae-woo, Sejong Institute
“While defeating an enemy in a major all-out war, the U.S. is likely to use aerial and naval assets to strike hostile forces from a distance in a somewhat limited warfare in another region. But we still have to wait and see what the new concept actually means. In terms of relations with the U.S., we need to maintain a strong alliance with the U.S. to cope with uncertainty in the changing security landscape in the region.”
Yoon Pyung-joong
Yoon Pyung-joong, Hanshin University
“In a situation when the U.S. and China are competing for preeminence in the region, Seoul’s policy unilaterally leaning toward the U.S. would only end up limiting its strategic choices. We should not think that our interests will always coincide with those of the U.S. Adopting a policy that could cause friction with China should be avoided. Rather than becoming subordinate to the U.S., we should seek ways to capitalize on it.”
Chung Sung-yoon
Chung Sung-yoon, Ilmin International Relations Institute, Korea University
“The Korea-U.S. alliance is something that could determine the fate of our nation. We should look at it from a strategic standpoint, pushing aside all these political and ideological disputes over it. Even if we took a shift toward China, China would not trust us all that much. Some say remaining neutral would help improve our interests amid the Sino-U.S. rivalry, but we could be abandoned by both with an ambiguous stance. It is risky to walk a tightrope between the U.S. and China.”
Balbina Hwang
Balbina Hwang, Georgetown University
“The single biggest threat to stability and peace is when a rising power is unhappy with the status quo and wants to change it. This is the reason why everyone is worried about China, because no one knows if China wants to challenge the status quo. As such, it is only prudent that the U.S. should continue to maintain its existing strength in the region ... and to ensure that all future rising powers do nothing to endanger the stability and freedom enjoyed by all the states in East Asia.”
John J. Mearsheimer
John J. Mearsheimer, University of Chicago
“In light of China’s rise, it makes good strategic sense for Japan to build up its military capabilities and act more like a normal state in the Asia-Pacific region. The U.S. will certainly welcome this development. In fact, Washington has been pushing Japan to improve its military forces and act more assertively, because the U.S. is increasingly worried about growing Chinese power, and wants Japan to play a key role in checking China if it adopts an overly ambitious foreign policy.”
Patrick M. Cronin
Patrick M. Cronin, Center for a New American Security
“In the wake of North Korea’s two lethal uses of force in 2010, combined with recent threats and a tenuous political transition, it is essential to reestablish deterrence. Bringing the U.S. forces up to full strength, enhancing alliance interoperability, and (conducting) exercises in the West Sea are all ways to accomplish that vital objective. Should Pyongyang attempt another military provocation despite these steps, then the alliance needs to be prepared to mete out swift punishment and stabilize the situation.”