WASHINGTON (AP) ― The U.S. economy has been outrunning everyone’s expectations.
Factory output has surprisingly surged. Housing, left for dead, is inching back. Most crucially, companies are hiring faster than many envisioned.
Funny thing about expectations, though: Each time you exceed them, it gets harder to do so next time. On Friday, economists expect the government to report a 200,000-plus job gain for a third straight month.
The previous two months, job growth topped expectations, and unemployment sank from 8.7 percent to 8.3 percent. Consumer confidence has since risen. So have President Barack Obama’s approval ratings.
Job seekers stand in line at a job fair in Portland, Oregon.(AP-Yonhap News)
This time? Another strong jobs report would be a welcome sign that the economy is further strengthening. But unless it exceeds expectations, it may not ignite a celebration.
“There’s a new threshold for what’s seen as a good report,” said Nariman Behravesh, chief economist at IHS Global Insight. “Our expectations are higher.”
That’s why the Obama administration hopes to dispel any assumption that the job market is destined to keep improving at the same pace before the November election. Last month, when a burst of hiring was reported for January ― 243,000 net jobs ― Obama cheered. Yet he also cautioned, “These numbers will go up and down in the coming months.”
An Associated Press survey of nearly two dozen economists late last month found that many envision lower unemployment in the coming months than they did a few weeks earlier. A big reason is that they now expect stronger job creation.