Published : Jan. 10, 2012 - 18:51
North Korea, U.S. alliance major sticking points in bilateral relationship
BEIJING ― The relationship between South Korea and China has deepened and widened in a variety of sectors since they established diplomatic ties two decades ago. But its future faces a series of hurdles including North Korean issues.
The long-standing alliance with the U.S., which has recently given a greater priority to the Asia-Pacific region, also could negatively affect Seoul-Beijing ties. However deepening economic interdependence could help improve their relations, experts noted.
“The cause of the South Korea-China conflict is, from South Korea’s stance, China continues to support North Korea despite its ‘regressive, old-fashioned’ third-generation power succession,” said Nam Chang-hee, political science professor at Inha University.
“From China’s position, it is concerned about the expanding role of the South Korea-U.S. alliance based on strategic flexibility. Seoul is concerned that the North could become subordinate to China with its expanding influence over it. There are also worries in Korea about China’s historical research (that allegedly distorts Korean history).”
Above all, North Korea is at the center of the potential conflict between the two countries.
“China’s stance is that pressure on North Korea by South Korea and the U.S. will bring the North to the corner, which will in turn undermine peninsular stability. The South, however, wants China to take a neutral stance as China taking the North’s side could encourage its misjudgment and undermine stability in the long term,” said Kang Jun-young, Chinese studies professor at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies.
Kang also pointed out that the decade-old issue surrounding illegal Chinese fishing would continue to worsen public sentiment against each nation, stressing that there should be an effective problem-solving mechanism between the two.
Korea's President Lee Myung-bak (left) and China's Premier Wen Jiaboa shake hands ahead of the meeting in Beijing on Tuesday. (Yonhap News)
Analysts said China would continue to seek stability on the peninsula, as long as it would continue to look at the impoverished state as of a great strategic value, while the U.S. is paying more attention to the Asia-Pacific region.
“As the U.S. move to counter a rising China becomes visible, China will continue to regard the North as a strategically crucial buffer zone although the North has been branded as a rogue state,” said Nam.
“China may continue its foreign policy that separates political issues from economic ones. It will cooperate with the North over military and security matters while pursuing economic cooperation with the South.”
Balbina Hwang, professor at Georgetown University, said that South Korea and China can hardly go together when it comes to North Korean issues.
“While China and South Korea (and all the other powers, including the U.S., Japan and even Russia) all share the same primary goal of stability on the peninsula and the region, the problem is that China has a fundamentally different view about how to achieve that stability,” she said.
“Beijing is willing to pour money directly to the regime and towards an inefficient economic system for the sake of keeping the North’s regime in power. Also, Beijing is willing to accommodate the North’s threatening behavior against South Korea, the U.S. and Japan, and even North Korea’s nuclear programs.”
Experts also said that China should capitalize on its “monopolistic leverage” to bring the reclusive North into the international community, a move that could also help improve inter-Korean ties.
“Although China argues it has little influence over the North, its influence is enormous. North Korea’s economic and military reliance on China is very high,” said Lee Dae-woo, senior researcher at the Sejong Institute.
“China should exert a strong influence to push the North to scrap its nuclear programs so that it can secure its international leadership. In order to establish the Group of 2, it should show to the world that it is a conscientious member of the international community.”
The recent U.S. move to shift its foreign policy focus to Asia could also affect South Korea-China relations as Seoul moves in close cooperation with Washington on a wide range of regional and global issues under the strategic alliance.
As the U.S. faces massive defense budget cuts over the next decade, it has sought to strengthen security ties with regional allies such as South Korea, Japan and Australia in apparent moves to counter China.
“Certainly the conflict between the U.S. and China will increase. As South Korea, Japan and the ASEAN states call for the U.S. intervention as they were threatened under China’s offensive diplomacy, its intervention has secured legitimacy,” Lee said.
“Should the U.S. actively seek a policy intervening in Asian matters, its ally South Korea will have difficulty deciding the level of its support for the U.S. policy.”
HUFS professor Kang said that Seoul can seek understanding over its deepening alliance with the U.S. to prevent it from hurting bilateral ties.
“As the alliance is basically designed to counter North Korean threats, Seoul can say that should China play a role to ease them, the intensity of the issue arising from the alliance could lessen. The bilateral free trade pact could also work as a diplomatic leverage to some extend,” he said.
Nam said that South Korea needs to encourage China into joining a global security network to drive home the point that it also shares the common security interests with the South and other nations.
“As we discuss the South Korea-China-Japan summit talks and the FTA with China, we should foster and expand China’s participation in the global efforts against terrorism, anti-piracy and non-proliferation,” he said. “This will help increase its understanding that it shares the common security interest with the West as well.”
By Song Sang-ho, Korea Herald correspontent
(sshluck@heraldcorp.com)