As the presidential race revs up with just 11 days to go to the election, signs are emerging that conservative voters may consolidate around a single candidate, despite the largely fragmented collection of right-wing parties.

Hong Joon-pyo, the candidate of the Liberty Korea Party, is rising in polls, despite revelations from his autobiography that he helped a friend with attempted rape decades ago, while other survey results show broad support among conservative voters for a possible two-way or three-way alliance to stop liberal front-runner Moon Jae-in.


According to a survey from Hankook Research, 69.6 percent of those who identified themselves as supporters of the Liberty Korea Party responded that they support a three-way coalition among Hong, Yoo Seong-min of the conservative splinter Bareun Party and centrist Ahn Cheol-soo of the People’s Party against Moon of the liberal Democratic Party of Korea.

Only 10.8 percent of the Liberty Korea Party supporters opposed such an alliance, while 19.6 percent of them did not answer.

A majority of Liberty Korea Party supporters are in the southeast of the country, the traditional home turf of conservative forces in South Korea. The Liberty Korea Party’s precursors, the Saenuri Party and Grand National Party, produced 18th President Park Geun-hye and 17th President Lee Myung-bak, respectively.

Political watchers also note the growing possibility of a conservative resurrection from the Park scandal. They say it could pose a significant challenge to the liberals, which are aiming to capitalize on the former conservative leader Park’s stunning demise and seize power.

Many Yeongnam voters are pinning hopes on Hong’s rapidly rising approval ratings, observers said.

The Hankook Research survey also shows that nearly half the voters in the western Honam region, composed of Gwangju and South and North Jeolla provinces, oppose the anti-Moon coalition. Only 19.5 percent of them supported it.

The three-way alliance among centrist Ahn and conservatives Hong and Yoo would surely be a big threat for Moon, though the possibility of its realization is deemed very low given the tight schedule. The election will be held May 9. Printing of the ballots is to be conducted Sunday, which means a candidate withdrawing after that day will continue to be represented on the paper ballot.

Support ratings for Ahn, Hong and Yoo are hovering at about 25 percent, 10 percent and 5 percent, respectively, while that for Moon is ranging between 38 and 43 percent.

Yonsei University professor Yang Seung-ham said the feasibility that Ahn will join a coalition is very low, as he had dismissed it in a TV debate.

“If Ahn coordinates with the Liberty Korea Party, he would lose his current support (about 30 percent) from Honam,” he said. “In addition, it would not be easy (for a single candidate) to beat Moon even if the coalition was attained.”

Meanwhile, Inha University visiting professor Park Sang-byung predicted great synergy, which could turn the tide of the current race.

But Park also echoed Yang, saying a “three-way coalition is impossible. The scheme would eventually deprive Ahn and Yoo of political justification and duration.”

A panelist on Channel A, a local cable channel, said he would not rule out the possibility that a large proportion of Hong and Yoo’s supporters would choose to vote for Ahn to block Moon’s election.

By Kim Yon-se (kys@heraldcorp.com)