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[Editorial] Preventing disaster

Korea faces serious demographic challenges from low birthrate, rapid aging

Feb. 24, 2017 - 16:17 By Korea Herald
The latest government statistics on the low birthrate and fast population aging offer a clear demonstration of the gravity of the demographic challenges the country faces.

Indeed the current flood of related figures is startling: The number of babies born in December last year stood at a record-low 27,200, a drop of 4,700, or 14.7 percent, from a year earlier. The number for the whole of the year 2016 was 406,300, down 32,100, or 7.3 percent, from the previous year. It was the lowest since 1925.

These figures alone manifest that government efforts to turn around the trend have had little effect. The crude birthrate -- the number of live births per 1,000 people – fell to an all-time low of 7.9, compared with 8.6 in the previous year.

The total fertility rate -- the average number of babies that women aged 15 to 49 are projected to have during their lifetime -- fell to 1.17 last year from 1.24, marking the second-lowest level.

Perhaps you may not need all these figures to realize how serious the problem is. Take a look around, and you will find many youths struggling to find decent jobs.

They give up or delay marriage because of the lack of a stable income and the high cost of housing. Statistics Korea said the number of marriages in December last year stood at 28,400, a drop of 4,900, or 14. 7 percent, from a year ago. It was the first time that the figure dropped below the 30,000 mark since 2000.

Those who were lucky enough to tie the knot face high costs of raising and educating children, and many opt to delay or give up having children.

Closely related to the low birthrate is the fast pace of aging. Government figures show that as of last month, there were 7,031,367 Koreans aged 65 or older, accounting for 13.6 percent of the total population.

The proportion is projected to exceed 14 percent by the end of this year, officially putting the country on the list of aged societies. It is simply scary to hear that the number of over-65s is forecast to more than double to 16 million by 2037.

The combination of low birthrates and fast population aging is casting thick dark clouds over the nation’s demographic health and economy. Officials predict that the nation’s population will start to fall after peaking at 53 million in 2031.

In fact, the downward movement has already started, as the working age population, which refers to people aged 15 to 64 years old, already peaked at 37.7 million last year.

The demographic changes will not only dent the nation’s growth potential but also increase burdens for welfare spending. Officials forecast that each 100 people in the working age population will have to take care of 88 elderly citizens in 2065, compared with 17 at present.

This bleak situation is all our own making. The government has spent more than 80 trillion won ($70.2 billion) since 2006 to fight the low birthrate and aging problems. But it focused more on one-dimensional, short-term approaches than comprehensive, structural ones.

As a result, the government’s recent programs to raise the birthrate were more like welfare programs, as they were geared to provide incentives – many of them cash payments and other subsidies – to encourage marriage and childbirth.

The government should awaken from the narrowness and short-sightedness and instead make a comprehensive approach toward the goal of encouraging more people to have children and curbing the pace of aging.

Equally important is the work to adjust the whole national and social structures and institutions to the new demographic environment. For instance, today we are on the brink of breaking the 400,000 mark in the annual number of newborns, which means many systems – be they on education, military draft, health care or pension – should be different from the 1970s, when 1 million babies were born.